Agar aap comodities me trade karne me ruchi rakhte hain to aapke liye ye janna faydemand rahega ke market me commodity prices ke ghatne ya badhne ke peeche ke factors aur drivers kya hain. Factors par aane se pehle lets give you an overview of what commodity trading is.
Commodities are assets or goods like Silver, gold, platinum jaise metals Ya crude oil, natural gas, gasoline jaise energy commodities Livestock aur agricultural commodities jaise corn, beans, rice, wheat Ye sabhi market me trade kiye jaate hain. Jaise stocks stock exchange par trade hote hain, usi tarah commodities commodity exchanges par trade hoti hain.
India ke commodity exchanges include
Multi Commodity Exchange – MCX,
National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange – NCDEX,
National Multi Commodity Exchange – NMCE,
Indian Commodity Exchange – ICEX,
Ace Derivatives Exchange – ACE and
the Universal Commodity Exchange – UCX.
Commodities ke case me trading futures contracts pe hoti hai. Futures contracts isliye helpful hote hain kyuki ye contracts commodities ke producers aur consumers commodities ke demand aur supply ke forces ke impact to limit kar dete hain.
Which brings us to the forces that influence the prices of commodities.
Let us have a look at these factors one by one in this podcast.
First, and the most obvious drivers of commodity prices are the supply and demand forces.
Jab commodities traditional markets me bhi trade ki jaati hain, toh unki overall market supply and demand unke prices determine karti hain. The same principles of the law of suuply and the law of demand apply here. Agar demand badh jaati hai ya overall supply ghat jaata hai, toh commodity ka price badh jata hai. On the other hand, agar demand girti hai ya supply abundance me hota hai to price kam ho jaata hai.
Another important driver of the commodity prices is the geopolitical climate of the nation and the world at large. Yahan par simple funda hain: agar commodity kisi aise area me produce ki jaati hai jahan political uprest hai, toh political tensions ki wajah se us commodity ka price influence ho sakta hai. For example, let’s say government kisi major tea-producing area me bandh declare kar deti hai. Just the announcement might make people anticipate ke market me tea supply kam ho jaega and then the prices will soar.
Next, there is a factor of economic growth. Ek commodity ka price overall economy ki health par bhi depend karta hai. Gar ek country ka GDP steady hai and country generally economic terms me achha perform kar rahi then, then this would in turn mean ke per capita income bhi behtar hai. Demand par iska direct asar padega. On the other hand, recession ke time par kuch commodities - jaise wheat, rice, will still be in demand. So you have to take into account all the possible factors all at once.
Commodity trading is possibly the most easily affected market trading due to natural disasters also. Agar kahin earthquake, flood, tsunami, hurricane ya fire jaise disasters hote hain, there is widespread destruction to property. Aise me commodities ke supply par direct asar padta hai. Ye problem aur bhi badh jaati hai agar affected area kisi commodity ka major producer hota hai.
Commodities are also affected by the currency movements. Dekhiye aisa hai ke kaafi saari commodities ka price dollars me establish kiya jaata hai. So if one country’s currency changes its equation with respect to US dollars, meaning it depreciates or appreciates in comparison, then that also impacts the price of commodities.
Finally, there are commodity-specific factors. Ye possibly commodity trading ka sabse bada factor hota hai. Har commodity ko produce and distribute karne ke liye weather, environment, logistics, transport, supportive government policies ki zarurat hoti hai. Suppose monsoon is untimely and Punjab gets flooded during the harvest season. That is major bad news for wheat as a commodity.
This is very important for commodity trading kyuki ye distinction hai commodity aur pure financial trade me. Commodities are backed by actual physical goods.
On top of it, aapke transport costs, storage costs etc bhi determine karte hain ki commodity ka final price kya hoga. Ho sakta hai kisi commodity ka production cost itna na ho, lekin storage me safe rakhna could a bigger expense.
Now that you know a little more about commodity trading, make sure you look at all the drivers and factors in entirety.
End me ek hi advice denge: aapka portfolio balanced ho iske liye commodity trading is a great option, but make sure you understand what all pull and push forces are at play.