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The Volatility Index (VIX) is a barometer of the market’s expectation of volatility over a short-term period. India VIX, also known as the Fear Gauge/Fear Index, is a volatility index computed based on the best bid-ask quotes of out-of-the-money near and mid-month NIFTY Options that are traded on the F&O segment of NSE. This index is managed by NSE Indices Limited, previously known as India Index Services & Products Limited.
India VIX is non-directional, i.e., it doesn’t indicate the direction that the market will go. It is an indicator of the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days. For instance, if the VIX value is 16, then it means the investors expect the prices to fluctuate in the range of +16% and -16% in the next 30 days. So, if the NIFTY levels are 16,000, then it implies a range of 13,440-18,560.
The India VIX value usually oscillates between the ranges of 15-35. Any value below 20, usually denotes low volatility and market stability. However, since November 2021, there have been a few instances of the India VIX levels having gone above 20, suggesting that we may have moved to a higher VIX regime. This is in part due to the increased retail participation in the options segment, which is highly responsive to short-term events.
The highest ever reading of 92.5 of the India VIX levels was recorded in November 2008 due to the Global Financial Crisis. This was followed by a reading of 87 in March 2020, due to the COVID situation. As a general thumb rule, the higher the India VIX value, the higher the expected volatility, and the higher the market risk.
The Nifty VIX values are computed up to 4 decimal places to enable the market participants to analyse the price impact due to minute changes in volatility. It requires data for the following four factors:
After identification of the quotes, variance (volatility squared) is calculated separately for both near and mid-month expiry. This variance is computed by providing weightage to each of the identified NIFTY option contracts, which is directly proportional to the average of bid-ask quotes of the options contract, and inversely proportional to its strike price.
These separately calculated variances for the near and mid-month expiry are then interpolated to arrive at a single variance value that has 30 days to expiration. The final India VIX value is the square root of this computed variance, further multiplied by 100.
India VIX was initially introduced by the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) based on its S&P 100 Index option prices in 1993 and later revised to S&P 500 Index options in 2003. This methodology was adopted and adapted by the NSE as per the Indian market requirements and thus, India VIX was launched in 2008, followed by VIX Futures in 2014.
India VIX is considered a trusted indicator of market volatility and fluctuations. It helps different investors and traders in the following ways: