How To Do Historical Analysis

Podcast Duration: 06:25
नमस्कार doston। एंजेल वन के इस podcast में आपका स्वागत है ।

Stock market mein successful ban ne ke liye ek cheez bahut jaruri hai. To beat the market, you must have the ability to look at the data that everyone else is looking at, and extract something new from it. Therefore, proper analysis is central to success in the financial markets.

There are a lot of ways to analyse a particular asset. Stock market main aapko ek spectrum dekhne ko milega. Spectrum ke ek end per hai technical analysts. These analysts tend to be intraday traders. They clear their position at the end of every single day. They are not looking at anything which has to do with the business's core strengths or weaknesses. Technical analysts just want to understand extremely short-term price fluctuations and make their profits from that understanding. They want to enter a position when the price is low and exit it when the price increases.

They have no interest in holding onto their positions for an extended period of time. Technical analysts yeh nahin dekhte ki kaun si company mein organic value hai. They just pick positions which will give them returns in the short term. Technical analysis involves looking at a lot of ratios like the debt-to-equity ratio, the price to earnings ratio, and other technical numbers.

To be a technical trader, you have to be at ease with a lot of complex mathematics.

On the other end of the spectrum, you meet the fundamental analysts. Fundamental analysts look for companies which will prosper for a long time to come. Fundamental analysts do not care about short-term ups and downs like the technical analysts do.

Fundamental analysts are invested in long-term trends. On the other hand, technical analysts have zero interest in long-term trends. Fundamental analysts ka maan na hai ki agar koi company apne sector mein leader hai, ya phir agar unke pass impressive market share hai, then their short term losses do not matter. They believe that they will make long-term returns which will justify the risk that they’re taking by sticking to their holdings.

Stock market mein analysis karne ka ek aur tarika hai stocks ke performance ko historically dekhna. Before talking about how to do historical analysis, let's ask ourselves the question: where can we get historical data? Agar data hi nahin hoga, to analysis ki baat hi nahin Banti.

Acchi baat to yah hai ki India ke main stock exchanges = the Bombay stock exchange and National stock exchange - ne kafi Sara data Apne website per freely available karaya hai.

1991 se jo bhi stock movements hue hain, vah sab aap study kar sakte hain. From 1991 to right now is a period of almost 30 years. It is very easy to get lost in such big data. Therefore, kuch important metrics hote Hain jis per aap ka Dhyan pahle Jana chahiye.

When analysing historical data, you can look at the basics, such as the trend of the opening price of a stock across time. You can also analyse the trend with the closing price across time. You can locate intraday highs and lows across time. Aap study kar sakte hain ki uss company ka shareholding pattern over time kaise badla. If institutional outside investors have constantly taken stakes in the company, then that means that the company is expected to deliver consistent returns across time.

Historical data aapko perspective de sakta hai. Aap ek company ke recent low returns dekh kar yah soch sakte hain ki yah company ek acha investment option nahin hai. If you are a trader with a short time horizon, then it is fair for you to think so.

However, it is possible that when you do that company’s historical analysis, you actually find out that the company tends to deliver high returns if only investors can stick with the company for a little while longer.

Conversely, possible hai ki koi company ka recently ek achcha rally chal raha hai. But looking at the historic returns of the company can tell you that the company is actually a very volatile investment option.

Past ke nazariye se dekhne se future mein returns guaranteed to nahin hote. But data from the past can still help you think about investment options in a new way. And in the stock market, it is the ability to look at things in a new way that separates the average traders from the truly good ones.

Historical data also gives you a good opportunity to test out your intuition and thinking about a particular investment. Suppose you have an investment strategy in mind. You can take your investment strategy and feed it into the past performance of that asset. Basically, aap yah dekh rahe Hain ki aapne apna investment strategy 10 sal pahle, ya phir 20 sal pahle apply kiya hota, to aapko acche returns milte ki nahin.

This is called backtesting with historical data. Of course, there are limitations with this technique. Agar aap 20 sal pahle invest kar rahe hote, to market situation bahut alag hota aur ho sakta hai ki aap ka strategy bhi alag hota. However, it is still a useful tool.

While it is possible that the market situation for a particular asset has changed a lot, it is also possible that the market situation has actually not changed very much. Aise kuchh stocks bilkul hote hain jinka volatility kafi low rehta hai. In such cases, backtesting your strategy by feeding it into historical data can give you a very good idea of whether or not you should modify your strategy, or implement it as it is.

चलिए, एंजेल वन की तरफ से आपको आज के अलविदा. ये podcast शेयर करना ना भूलियेगा - याद रखियेगा की ज्ञान बाटने से बढ़ता है । और फिर अंत में तोह financial markets एक ऐसी university है जिसमे कोई professor नहीं, सब students ही है ।