Hi friends and welcome to this podcast by Angel One!
Aaj ke podcast mein hum discuss karenge some of the Upcoming share market trends.
While any specifics of how the stock market will move cannot be guaranteed, smart investors overall trends ko observe karke hi apne stock market price predictions bana dete hai. Price predictions are the base on which traders apne buy aur sell decisions le lete hai.
Because the stock market is affected by a variety of factors, the trends that are likely to shape the market might have to do with the investor mind-set, with the ongoing pandemic, with new technology and so much more.
Toh abhi filhal kaun kaunse trends jari hai jisse dekh ke aap apna trading decisions le sakte ho? Aur kaunse trends upcoming hai jiske baare mein aap aware rehna chahiye? Chaliye dekhte hai:
Let’s begin with observing the ongoing trends to see how they are likely to evolve into upcoming trends.
Ongoing trend number 1:
Optimism around vaccines and a special focus on pharma stocks Investors appeared keen to invest amidst a falling market and for many investors, pharma stocks were the flavour of the day. Log sirf vaccine-wale companies mein invest nahi kar rahe hai, balki in pharma as a sector. Kai experts bhi on record aa ke bole hai ki pharma stocks are a potentially ROI-driven investment option. April has seen several midcap pharma stocks rise by anywhere between 15 % and 36%. But does this warrant a guaranteed upwards trend? No it doesn’t. Stock market remains a subject to market beliefs and conventions. Changes dekhne ko milte hain ismein with time.
Ongoing trend number 2:
A rather bullish market despite the overall depressing economic scenario. In the past, when stock prices began falling, widespread panic would follow; which in turn led to people dumping stock, thus driving share prices into the ground. 2020 mein situation bilkul alag nikal gaya. Whether we need to thank investor education programmes such as our own, or whether there is another driving force to this trend remains to be seen. Lekin ek baat bilkul clear hai: today’s investor is learning to master his fear when investing in the stock market. Even amidst the worst of the pandemic, investments kept pouring into the stock market. As soon as stock prices fell marginally, investors would buy in, thus keeping prices somewhat stable. Thus even amidst the worst moments of 2020, the stock market has avoided a blood-bath that many investors might have dreaded the minute that news of a real global pandemic began to register (tabh toh pandemic shabd kisko pata tha?). Aage kya hoga? Are we just postponing the inevitable? Yeh ab discuss karege in our section called “Potential for a price correction” in upcoming trends.
Chaliye before that let us complete the last ongoing trend, that is ongoing trend number
3, which is: Rising oil prices
If you are just getting your stock market bearings, aap soch rahe honge ki connection kya hai bhai? Lekin at the same time aapko pata hi hai how oil prices har cheez ko affect karte hai - it has what you might call an all-pervasive effect. Just like how a lockdown affects everything, your work-life balance, your exercise and diet, socialising and entertainment… everything. Oil prices affect logistics and therefore affect the world’s international businesses (it also affects tourism but tourism has been having a bad day since 2020, so let’s not even go there). Jab crude oil ka bhav bad jata hai then the transportation of raw materials and goods becomes more expensive, increasing the cost of doing business and reducing profitability - the company’s bottomline looks less attractive aur phir iska asar stock price mein sabit hota hai.
You will also be surprised to note the variety of products that actually use crude oil in their production or as their base. Kya aapko pata hai ki paints ka key ingredient oil hai? Kya aapko pata tha ki joote ke production mein crude oil use kiya jata hai? Tyres ke production mein bhi crude oil use kiya jata hai. All your fuel is somehow linked to crude oil - a tiny increase in crude oil prices leads to inflation.
Now let’s look at how these trends might play out as upcoming trends in the coming months. Of course dost, upcoming trends are a prediction toh hum current situation ko dekh ke presume, assume guess kar sakte hai hi yeh trends aa sakte hai ya nahi. Lekin wait to see them play out before you take any concrete action.
Potential for a price correction Some experts are advising caution to investors and many low-risk investors too are wary of a market that remained bullish amidst a truly suffering economy. In ke logic hai ki the market is sure to correct at some point. In other words, stock prices are currently inflated and expected to fall.
In addition, the rising crude oil prices could also affect stock prices negatively as discussed a few minutes ago. Yeh situation mein, zyaada tar investors jisko safe investment strategy ka preference hai, they will move away from a growth investing strategy and go with a value investing strategy.
2. IPO galore
There are almost 30 IPOs already announced for the coming few months. An initial public offering is put out to invite funding from the public – it is usually undertaken to generate seed capital for expansion and breaking into new markets. This is expected to be a continued trend. In fact even in 2020, during the December quarter there were an astounding 19 IPOs held in the December quarter alone, generating close to two billion dollars. IPO investment mein investors do not have much stock price history to go on, lekin investors have the chance of buying shares of a company at a price that they may not see again once the shares go on to the market.
Online broking firms like Angel One now give investors app-based easy access to the stock market – investors ke liye share market access kaafi convenient aur asaan hai, like never before. Ek aur trend hai rule-based trading, jiska technical naam hai algorithm-based trading. Is mein, traders can use algorithms to make their job easier. Instead of manually studying all the stocks, sifting through enough data to give them a migraine, the investor with a little bit of a tech background can set up algorithms that will clue them in on when to buy stocks and when to sell stocks.
Without-tech background investors, ke liye bhi solution diya gaya hai – they can just enter some instructions and the algorithm is created by today’s advanced FinTech solutions.
In fact, these FinTech solutions ne trading mein thoda democracy la ke diya hai – ab no matter your age, occupation and stock market experience, aap bhi stock market investment kar sakte ho. Of course, aise podcasts sun ke thoda padhai-research karna zaroori hai, spare capital se hi invest karna hai – aise precautions le ke. Lekin abhi you can invest easily !
Investments and the securities markets are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.