नमस्कार मित्रो। एंजेल वन के इस podcast में आपका स्वागत है ।
Let's be very clear - this is a very difficult time for investors. Puri duniya mein ek virus ki wajah se ek health crisis aaya hai. Yah crysis china mein originate hua. But because of the interconnected nature of the modern, globalised world, this crisis has spread all over the world.
This crisis has reached India as well. It has affected our future growth prospects in a serious manner. In the financial markets, investors have seen the value of their holdings deteriorate by 10%, 20%, and sometimes even 30% to 40%. Fitch and Moody’s jaisi rating organizations ne india ka annual gdp projection ka downward adjustment kiya hai. These bodies have roughly decreased India’s growth projection by 0.5%. If you think that a 0.5% decrease in the gdp is not a big deal, then think again. A 0.5% Decrease in the gdp can lead to about a 1% to 2% increase in the unemployment rate.
Hamare desh ki abadi 100 karod hai, aur agar unemployment rate 1% percent bhi increase hua, to uska matlab lagbhag 10 karod aur unemployed log honge.
The stock market cannot escape such an economic slowdown. International monetary fund ka toh kahana hai ki ek global recession aane wala hai.
Yah sab developments ko dekhkar kafi investors gabra gaye hai. A lot of investors who started investing in the last 10 years do not really have experience of dealing with the stock market in times of such a slow down.
In this podcast we will talk about the 5 most common mistakes that both new and experienced investors tend to make in times of such a crisis. Before any further ado, let's get started.
Mistake 1: Aise crisis mein log pahla mistake yah karte hain ki vah panic mein aakar acche stocks ko bhej dete hain.
But that is not a very smart decision. Global pandemics ke time per har firm ka business kam hota hai. Har firm ka revenue girta hai. Har firm ke profits kam hote hain. But iska matlab yah nahin hai ki every business is alike. Some firms have a stronger fundamental base.
That is, their business model is better and when everything returns to normal, they will be the first ones to bounce back. You do not want to clear the positions you hold in such forms. Even at the time of record crashes in the stock market indexes, you should hold your position in companies that are our leaders in their sectors. These are the companies most likely to be the first ones to recover. Your earnings will recover alongside them.
Mistake 2: Now because of the coronavirus is important to think in relative terms.
Most companies' market capitalisation is going down. In such a time, savvy investors should look for companies whose market capitalisation is shrinking less in relative terms.
For example, agar market mein average listed company ka capitalisation 40% se girta hai, aur koi select bunch of companies ka capitalisation 5 to 10% se girta hai, then the latter group of companies have shown themselves to be more resilient to such shocks.
At such a time, when a lot of good stocks are trading at a discount, it might be a good idea to take positions in companies that have shown that they have thicker skins than other companies.
This brings us to the third mistake that investors make.
Crisis ke time pe most investors apni positions shrink karte hain. That is, they decrease their holdings in the financial markets. However, because a lot of fundamentally strong and resilient stocks trade at a discount at such moments, it might be an intelligent idea to actually expand your holdings.
Now we move on to the fourth mistake that investors are making.
Log bhool jaate hain ki market slowdown ke bad market recovery bhi hota hai.
Right now India ke sabse bade 2 indexes - nifty and sensex - are both trading below their crucial support levels. Let's understand crucial support levels very briefly. Kisi stock ka value agar bahut gir jata hai to vo stock fir se rally karne lagta hai. Once a stock’s price bottoms out, the investors are attracted to that stock because they want to get it at a discount.
As investors rush to get the stock the stocks price tends to go up.
Therefore the price at which investors rush to buy a stock is called its crucial support price.
This is the level below which the stock price rarely dips. To fir iska kya matlab hua ki sensex aur nifty crucial support level se niche trade kar rahe hain?
Iska yah matlab hua ki usually investors current prices par stocks khareed te hain. However, because of the corona virus, they are playing it safe and refusing to expand their positions.
These investors are operating with the false assumption that the current situation will last forever. Per 2008 mein jab stock markets 50% percent se zyada shrink hue, to fir uske char saal baad 150% se zyada expand bhi hue.
Therefore, investors should remember that the losses can be regained. Stock market mein permanent losses jaisi koi cheez nahi hoti. In fact, by panicking and selling off their positions at a loss investors may freeze the loss.
If they wait out the crisis, then they may be able to sell off their positions at a profit once the market recovers, and, indeed, rebounds.
Now we move on to another common mistake that people tend to make.
Agar koi stock ka price bahut gir gaya hai, to uske 2 matlab nikale ja sakte hain.
Uska ek matlab to yah hua ki investors panic karke irrational decisions le rahe hain. The company behind the stock has strong fundamentals but “herd instinct” se ye stock oversold hai. Iski vajah se uska value gir gaya hai.
However koi stock ka price girne ka matlab ho sakta hai ki uski underline value kam hai.
That is, the company may have weak fundamentals. Therefore, agar aap ko koi discounted stock ko kharidna hai to yah samajhna zaroori hai ki underlying company ke fundamentals strong hai ya weak hai. Only after that should you commit your money to the stock.
चलिए, एंजेल वन की तरफ से आपको आज के अलविदा. Apne aur apni family ka dhyan rakhiye. Apni holdings ka bhi dhyan rakhiyega.
Aur ये podcast शेयर करना ना भूलियेगा - याद रखियेगा की ज्ञान बाटने से बढ़ता है । और फिर अंत में तोह financial markets एक ऐसी university है जिसमे कोई professor नहीं, सब students ही है ।