A failure swing pattern is an RSI signal that may indicate weakening momentum and a potential trend reversal. A trend may appear robust on a price chart, but the underlying impetus may already be waning. Traders can observe this change by examining the behaviour of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) through the failure swing pattern.
If the RSI fails to establish a new high or low and subsequently breaches a previous swing level, it can indicate that momentum is fading and a reversal may be forming. The concept was introduced by J. Welles Wilder Jr., the inventor of the RSI.
This article explains the meaning of the failure swing pattern and how it is formed.
Key Takeaways
- Failure swing is an RSI-based reversal indication.
- It might signal waning bullish or negative momentum.
- A failure swing top is often a bearish signal. A failure swing bottom is usually bullish.
- RSI readings of 70 and 30 generally recognize the pattern.
- The signal is verified by RSI breaking its last swing level.
- It works best when backed up by price activity and other technicals.
What is a Failure Swing Pattern?
A failure swing pattern is a technical signal in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) that may indicate weakening momentum and a potential trend reversal. It occurs when the RSI fails to form a new high or low and then breaks a previous swing level.
One crucial element is the conventional RSI failure swing, which occurs within the RSI itself. So, it’s different from regular RSI divergence, which compares RSI movements to price movements.
Types of Failure Swing
They are of two primary kinds:
- Failure Swing Top
- Failure Swing Bottom
Failure Swing Top
A failure swing top is a bearish indicator.
Normal progression is:
- RSI above 70 → Pullback → Recovery fails to make a new high → RSI breaks the recent low
As RSI rises to 78, it then falls. It later recovers to 72 but does not reach 78 again. If the RSI then breaks below the previous swing low, the failure of swing is confirmed.
The inability to reach a new high indicates the bullish impetus is waning.
Failure Swing Bottom
A failure swing bottom is a bullish indicator.
The series is:
- RSI < 30 → Rebound → Pullback holds above prior low → RSI breaks recent high
Suppose RSI drops below 25 and then bounces. Then it drops again, but only to 32, not down to 25. The bullish failure swing is confirmed when the RSI crosses above the preceding swing high.
That could be a sign that momentum selling is losing some of its punch.
Read More: How to Invest in a Bear Market?
How To Spot Failure Swing?
Identifying the pattern involves a few simple steps.
Step 1: Study the RSI Extreme
RSI should break above 70 or below 30 in a more typical setup.
Step 2: Wait for the First Turnaround
RSI should get out of the extreme and make a swing point.
Step 3: Watch the Retest
RSI tries to move toward the previous extreme but fails to produce a new high or low.
Step 4: Wait for Confirmation
The pattern comes into play when RSI breaches the respective swing level.
This last step is vital, as a single failed attempt doesn’t signal that a trend reversal is underway.
How Traders Trade the Pattern
The Failure Swing can assist traders in identifying potential momentum shifts and setting up entry and exit points.
| Pattern | RSI Behaviour | Possible Signal |
| Failure Swing Top | Fails to make a new high | Bearish |
| Failure Swing Bottom | Fails to make a new low | Bullish |
Traders can use this to look for a short trade once confirmed, placing a stop-loss above an appropriate recent high for a bearish setup.
On confirmation, a bullish setup may be considered for a long position with a stop-loss below a suitable recent low. The specific entry and exit levels should be based on the stock's price structure, time frame, and general market conditions.
RSI Divergence vs Failure Swing
| Feature | RSI Divergence | Failure Swing |
| Definition | A comparison between price action and RSI indicator action. | A pattern identified entirely within the RSI indicator's own movement, independent of price action. |
| What It Compares | Price behavior vs. RSI behavior (e.g., Price makes a higher high, but RSI makes a lower high). | RSI behaviour against its own prior peaks and troughs (e.g., RSI breaks above a previous swing high or below a swing low). |
| Dependency | Requires two data sources: Price chart and RSI oscillator. | Self-contained within the RSI indicator itself. |
| Purpose | Highlights underlying momentum loss and potential trend exhaustion before price reflects it. | Acts as an explicit breakout/breakdown signal generated purely by momentum shifts inside the RSI. |
Benefits of Failure Swing
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Early momentum warnings: Warns of fading momentum before the broader market trend or price action clearly reflect a shift.
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Bullish reversals: Highlights potential buying pressure when RSI forms a higher low after an oversold reading, even as the stock price continues to fall.
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Bearish reversals: Identifies waning upward momentum when an overbought RSI fails to make a new high during an ongoing price rally.
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Objective signals: Replaces guesswork with structural confirmation points, giving traders specific patterns to monitor potential reversals.
How to Boost Failure Swing Signal?
A failure swing is better understood in the context of the broader market setup.
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Support & Resistance (S&R): A good confluence can come from a bullish failure swing near strong support or a bearish failure swing near resistance.
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Price action trading: Candlestick reversals or a breach of a short-term trend line can add confirmation.
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Volume: Another indicator that market involvement is changing is a meaningful change in volume around the reversal.
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Higher timeframe trend: Check the bigger picture so you’re not trading on a lone RSI move; it’s a good idea. You don't need to use numerous unrelated indicators. The goal should be confirmation, not clutter.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
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Treating 70 or 30 as Automatic Reversal Levels: RRSI might stay over 70 or below 30 during strong trends. Reaching an extreme alone isn’t a failed swing.
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Entering before confirmation: A failed retest is simply part of the setup. So wait for a breach of the RSI swing level to avoid getting into trades too early.
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Mixing it up with divergence: A traditional failure swing is based on the structure of RSI itself; divergence is about comparing RSI and price.
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Disregarding market conditions: A short-term RSI signal may fail in a strongly trending market.
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Risk management forgotten: No technical pattern is 100% successful. Position sizing and stops are still important.
Conclusion
The failure swing pattern is a handy RSI method for spotting probable reversals in market momentum. The premise is simply that RSI reaches an extreme but then fails to make a new high/low. A failure to swing higher might be a warning sign of declining bullish momentum. A failed swing bottom can indicate rising bullish momentum after an oversold reading.
