CPI inflation for the month of July 2017 came in almost 90 basis points higher at 2.36% compared to 1.46% in the month of June 2017. Of course, the July inflation is still sharply lower than the 6.07% recorded in July 2016 but at a time when the inflation is going through a structural shift, …
The index of industrial production for the month of May came in at 1.7% continuing its downward trend over the last one year. As the chart below depicts, the IIP number has virtually fallen in tandem with the manufacturing growth, which remains the largest component of the IIP. In fact, it would be interesting to …
The Union Budget speech would be typically divided into two parts. The first part would contain all the government allocations and resources and the second part contained the key changes pertaining to direct and indirect taxes. Effective July 2017, most of the indirect taxes including excise duty, VAT, CENVAT, Sales Tax and Service Tax were …
Over the last few weeks there have been some key data points that have raised concerns over the pace of rate cuts adopted by the RBI. It may be recollected that back in February 2017, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had shifted its monetary stance from “Accommodative” to “Neutral”. Over the last few quarters there …
The Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MOSPI) announced the retail inflation number for the month of June 2017 on July 12th. In continuation with the inflation trend in the last one year, the trend of retail inflation continues to be down. In fact, over the last one year (as depicted in the chart below), …
The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held on August 01st and 02nd were published by the RBI on 16th of August. The MPC minutes essentially captures the gist of the discussions of the 6 members of the MPC and also their justification for the rate action recommended. Interestingly, there was a lot more …
The July update on the world economy released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the 24th of July 2017 has some interesting insights from a macroeconomic standpoint. A few key highlights appear to emanate from the IMF monthly update. Firstly, the role of the US in driving the global growth is likely to be …
On June 21st, the Monetary Policy Committee made its minutes of the monetary policy discussions public. These MPC minutes are extremely valuable as they provide an insight into the thinking of each of the members. This MPC meeting came in the aftermath of weak GDP growth numbers in the aftermath of the demonetization as well …
Back in December 2016, the USD-INR was quoting at Rs.68.5/$. The rupee had weakened sharply in the aftermath of the demonetization drive and was threatening to convincingly break the lows of August 2013. Most currency experts and analysts were of the view that in Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) terms, the rupee was already overvalued …
The IIP number for the month of June 2017 came in sharply lower at -0.1% compared to 1.7% in the previous month of May 2017. A correction in the IIP was expected in the month of June due to the impact of the GST launch, although it was not expected to dip into negative territory. …
