Crude Oil Prices Ease After Trump Says US-Iran War Could End ‘Very Quickly’ | May 20, 2026

Oil prices eased on Wednesday as investors assessed comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting that the conflict with Iran could come to an end “very quickly”.  

However, concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding peace negotiations continued to keep crude prices elevated. 

Market participants remain cautious as ongoing tensions in the region continue to disrupt global energy supply chains, particularly around the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. 

Crude Oil Prices Slip in Early Trade 

Brent crude futures declined 45 cents, or 0.4%, to trade at $110.83 per barrel in early trading. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $103.88 per barrel. 

Both benchmarks had already fallen nearly $1 in the previous session after reports suggested that the United States and Iran had made progress in diplomatic discussions aimed at preventing further military escalation. 

US-Iran Peace Talks in Focus 

Investor attention remains firmly on developments surrounding the ongoing US-Iran negotiations. Market sentiment improved slightly after US Vice President JD Vance stated that both countries had made progress in talks and neither side wanted a renewed military confrontation. 

However, uncertainty persists as Washington’s stance on the conflict continues to shift frequently. Analysts believe markets remain highly sensitive to any developments that could either ease or escalate tensions in the region. 

Despite indicating optimism over a quick resolution, President Trump also warned that the United States could launch fresh strikes on Iran if an agreement is not reached within the coming days. 

Strait of Hormuz Supply Disruption Supports Prices 

The ongoing US-Israeli conflict involving Iran has resulted in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that normally handles nearly one-fifth of global oil supplies. 

The International Energy Agency described the disruption as one of the most significant threats to global crude supply in recent years, raising concerns about prolonged shortages in international energy markets. 

Analysts believe that even if a peace agreement is reached, crude oil supply may not immediately return to normal levels due to logistical disruptions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. 

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Citi Expects Further Upside in Brent Crude 

Global financial institution Citi stated that Brent crude could rise to as high as $120 per barrel in the near term, citing the risk of prolonged supply disruptions and broader geopolitical uncertainty. 

The bank noted that oil markets may currently be underestimating the impact of extended disruptions to Middle East crude exports. 

US Crude Inventories Continue to Decline 

Supporting crude prices further, US crude oil inventories reportedly declined for a fifth consecutive week, according to market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute. 

Fuel inventories also declined during the period, indicating continued strength in energy demand. 

According to a Reuters poll, official data from the US Energy Information Administration is expected to show a decline of around 3.4 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ended May 15. 

Conclusion 

Oil prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Middle East as investors monitor the progress of US-Iran peace negotiations and ongoing supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. While hopes of diplomatic progress have eased prices slightly, continued uncertainty and tightening inventories are expected to keep crude markets volatile in the near term. 

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