NTPC, Tata Power, and Others Surge as Renewable Energy Hits New Highs

On January 15, 2025, power stocks gained momentum, rising up to 7.1% during intraday trade. At 11:25 AM on the BSE:

• NTPC share price rose by 3.39%
• Power Grid share price rose 4.22%
• NHPC share price gained 2.3%
• Adani Green Energy share price increased by 3.27%
• Tata Power share price climbed 3.42%
  Other notable movers included SJVN (up 2.5%), JSW Energy (up 2.2%), Torrent Power (up 1.98%), and Reliance Power (up 1.41%).

Renewable Energy Capacity Hits New Highs

India’s renewable energy capacity grew significantly in 2024, increasing by 15.84% to 209.44 GW by December, compared to 180.80 GW in 2023. Key highlights include:

• Solar Power: Added 24.54 GW, a 33.47% Y-o-Y growth, reaching 97.86 GW.
• Wind Power: Increased by 3.42 GW, a 7.64% growth, totalling 48.16 GW.
  This growth was part of a record addition of 28.64 GW in 2024, more than double the 13.05 GW added in 2023, as reported by the Ministry of New & Renewable Energy (MNRE).

Q3 Power Sector Insights

Power utilities are expected to see moderate growth in Q3FY25. Key trends include:

• Generation Trends: Total generation may rise 3% Y-o-Y to 429 billion units (BU).
  • Coal-based generation remains steady at 319BU.
  • Hydro generation surged 27% to 34BU.
  • Renewable generation is estimated to grow 14% Y-o-Y to 47BU.
  • Gas-based generation could fall by 20% Y-o-Y to 5.4BU.
• Peak Demand: Likely to hold at 224GW, a 10% drop from the record 250GW seen in May 2024.

Market Dynamics and Pricing

• Coal and Gas: Global coal prices fell due to oversupply and weak demand in China, with e-auction premiums at 65–70% in Q3FY25.
• Trading Volume: Expected to grow 16% Y-o-Y to 30BU in Q3FY25, contributing to reduced exchange prices.
• Day-Ahead Market Prices: Likely to average Rs 3.71 per unit in Q3FY25, a 26% Y-o-Y decline.

The robust growth in renewable energy capacity and stable performance of traditional power generation highlights the sector’s ongoing evolution.

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