OPEC+ to Move Forward with April Oil Output Increase Amid U.S. Pressure

OPEC+ recently announced that it will move forward with its scheduled oil production increase in April, a decision that comes after U.S. President Donald Trump once again urged OPEC and Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices.

This will be the first production hike since 2022 for OPEC+, which comprises the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with Russia and other allies. A virtual meeting held on Monday by 8 OPEC+ members responsible for the group’s most recent output reductions confirmed the decision to go ahead with the April increase, OPEC said.

“OPEC+ noted that this gradual increase could be adjusted or reversed depending on market conditions,” the group stated. “Such flexibility will allow OPEC+ to maintain its role in stabilising the oil market.”

Fluctuation in Oil Prices

Oil prices have recently fluctuated between $70 and $82 per barrel, largely driven by expectations regarding potential changes to U.S. sanctions on major oil producers like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, as well as tariffs on China that could dampen global demand.

Trump has once again pressed OPEC to lower prices, which spiked above $82 per barrel in January following sanctions imposed by former U.S. President Joe Biden on Russia. Prices have since dropped, fueled by hopes that Trump’s influence could bring about a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war and improve Russian oil exports. However, his intentions to curb Iranian oil exports and the recent cancellation of Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela have hindered further price declines.

The interplay of these opposing factors made the decision on April’s production increase particularly complex, according to OPEC+ sources. They also noted that Trump’s tariff proposals could add more uncertainty to the market outlook.

Since 2022, OPEC+ has reduced production by 5.85 million barrels per day, or roughly 5.7% of global supply, in a series of measures aimed at supporting the market.

Conclusion

In December, OPEC+ agreed to extend its most recent cuts through the first quarter of 2025, delaying the planned production increase to April. The gradual reversal of 2.2 million barrels per day in cuts – the most recent phase – will start in April with a monthly rise of 1,38,000 barrels per day.

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