India’s Trade Performance in December 2024: A Glimpse into Exports, Imports, and Deficit Dynamics

India’s goods exports recorded a marginal 1% contraction year-on-year in December, reaching just over $38 billion. In contrast, imports rose by 4.9% to nearly $60 billion, narrowing the merchandise trade deficit to $21.9 billion—a sharp decline from November’s record deficit of $31.8 billion. This moderation reflects positive shifts in certain trade parameters, despite underlying challenges.

Gold Imports: Sequential Drop but Yearly Surge

Gold imports saw a sequential decline, dropping from November’s adjusted tally of $9.9 billion to $4.7 billion in December. However, this marked a significant 55.4% year-on-year rise compared to December 2023, indicating strong demand for the yellow metal. The November figure was initially feared to have spiked to $14.9 billion but was corrected by the Centre after identifying a $5 billion double count.

Resilience Amidst Challenges: Quarterly Trends in Exports

Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal emphasised the resilience of India’s exports, highlighting that shipment values have grown in each quarter of the 2024 financial year. December’s export figure of $38 billion was only the third time in the financial year that monthly exports reached this level, showcasing consistency in trade performance.

Petroleum Trade: Declining Prices Impact Export Values

Petroleum imports increased modestly by 2.2% in December to $15.3 billion, but petroleum product exports plunged 28.6%, recording just $4.9 billion. Over the April–December 2024 period, petroleum exports declined by 20.84% to a little over $49 billion, while imports rose 6.4% to $138.31 billion. The primary factor behind these figures is a 20% decline in global petroleum prices, which affected export values significantly.

Non-petroleum exports, however, have been consistently rising, with December’s non-petroleum exports up 5.05% year-on-year, and a 7.05% increase noted during the April–December period.

Year-to-Date Trade Statistics

From April to December 2024, India’s goods exports grew 1.6% year-on-year to $321.7 billion, while imports rose 5.15% to $532.5 billion. The cumulative trade deficit for this period stands at $210.8 billion, an 11.1% increase from the previous year. On a year-on-year basis, December’s trade deficit grew 17%, reflecting a mixed performance across sectors.

Call for Budgetary Support

The Federation of Indian Exporters Organisation (FIEO) has urged the government to address critical issues in the upcoming Union Budget 2025. Key recommendations include:

• Boosting manufacturing and labour-intensive sectors.
• Resolving trade finance challenges, particularly for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs).
• Continuation of schemes like the Interest Equalisation Scheme.
• Addressing GST-related export hurdles.

FIEO President Ashwani Kumar also highlighted opportunities arising from potential tariff wars by the incoming U.S. administration, stressing the need for a focused export strategy targeting key markets like the U.S.

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