El Niño Likely to Continue Till February 2027; Monsoon Impact Will Depend on Multiple Climate Factors, Says Government

India's weather forecasting agencies expect El Niño conditions to continue until February 2027, but the government has clarified that the phenomenon alone will not determine the performance of the Indian monsoon. 

Responding to a question in the Lok Sabha, Union Minister Jitendra Singh, said multiple oceanic and atmospheric systems influence rainfall patterns over the country. The latest outlook is based on advanced forecasting models developed by the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS).

AI-Based Forecast Points to Persistent El Niño

According to the minister, El Niño conditions emerged in May 2026 and are expected to persist from June 2026 to February 2027, with a forecast probability of 70% to 90%.

The assessment combines INCOIS' indigenous Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)-based El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction system with inputs from the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System. The forecasting model also provides probabilistic predictions and uncertainty estimates, helping scientists monitor changing ocean-atmosphere conditions more accurately.

Monsoon Depends on More Than Just El Niño

While El Niño has often been associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in parts of India, Dr. Singh said it is only one of several climate drivers that shape the southwest monsoon.

Other important factors include the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), prevailing wind patterns and regional ocean-atmosphere interactions. The eventual impact on rainfall will depend on how these systems evolve during the monsoon season, making continuous monitoring essential.

The minister also noted that prolonged El Niño conditions could influence weather over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, increasing the possibility of marine heatwaves and affecting marine ecosystems, fisheries, offshore operations and coastal activities.

Government Expands Ocean Monitoring and Early Warning Systems

To strengthen climate resilience, the government has enhanced INCOIS' ocean forecasting capabilities through expanded observation networks, including ocean gliders, moored buoys, Argo floats, tide gauges and satellite-based monitoring.

The Centre has also improved multi-hazard early warning services, impact-based forecasting and dissemination of advisories for coastal states. Additionally, under the Deep Ocean Mission, ₹145.06 crore has been allocated in the current financial year to support marine resource mapping and underwater exploration using advanced autonomous technologies.

Conclusion

As climate variability becomes increasingly complex, the government is focusing on indigenous forecasting technologies and stronger ocean observation systems to improve the accuracy of weather and marine advisories. These efforts are expected to support policymakers, coastal communities, fishermen and businesses that depend on reliable climate forecasts.

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