Crude Oil Prices Fall on Hopes of Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire | October 12, 2026

Crude oil prices declined on Monday, October 12, 2026, after US President Donald Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to halt attacks on each other's energy facilities, as per news reports. The development raised hopes of increased Russian oil supplies, although continued tensions in the Middle East kept prices above key levels. 

Brent crude futures fell $1.37, or 1.31%, to $103.35 a barrel by 0037 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $1.30, or 1.42%, to $90.55 a barrel. 

Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Eases Supply Concerns 

Trump announced the proposed energy ceasefire on Sunday, following news of a diesel supply deal with Russia on Friday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was still awaiting details, while Moscow had not commented on the announcement. 

The prospect of fewer attacks on energy infrastructure raised hopes of improved supply availability. However, uncertainty over the agreement's terms and duration left questions about whether the arrangement would lead to a sustained recovery in Russian energy flows. 

Middle East Conflict Keeps Oil Prices Above $100 

Continuing tensions in the Middle East provided support to Brent crude prices. The Houthis claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh's international airport that killed 13 people and injured more than 300. Saudi authorities also reported injuries following another attack on the airport on Sunday. 

Trump said the United States was considering joining Saudi strikes against the Houthis. The developments form part of the wider regional conflict involving Iran, which began with US and Israeli attacks in February. 

Strait of Hormuz Attacks Raise Supply Risks 

Reports of attacks on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have added to concerns about crude oil shipments.  

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a tanker was struck by a drone near Sohar anchorage in Oman, while another vessel was damaged by an unidentified projectile while transiting the strait. 

These incidents threaten the recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports recorded in September and keep supply disruption risks in focus. 

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Gulf of Mexico Production Recovery 

In the Gulf of Mexico, Shell, Chevron and BP were working to redeploy personnel and restore production at their platforms after Hurricane Isaias made landfall early on Saturday. The recovery of offshore operations remains another factor affecting near-term energy supply. 

Conclusion 

Crude oil prices fell as hopes of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire raised expectations of improved supply. However, continuing Middle East tensions, tanker attacks and disruptions to energy infrastructure remained key concerns for the market. 

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