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Narrow participation

As a finance professor, it's important to understand key terms in the stock market. One such term is the 200-day moving average, which indicates a long-term declining trend when a stock falls below it. Currently, 70% of NYSE stocks are in this position, yet the NYSE Composite is at an all-time high. This suggests a narrow participation, with money concentrated in a small group of large-cap stocks. This trend has been ongoing for about a year and a half, similar to setups before the July 1990 and October 1994 tops. These resulted in declines of 20% and less than 10%, respectively, showcasing the wide range of possible outcomes. While it's impossible to predict with certainty, I believe we should brace for some serious trouble in the coming months.

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