Rupee at Record Low: Impact on Reliance, ONGC, BPCL, HPCL and Gas Companies Explained

The Indian rupee reached a historic low, breaching the ₹90/$ mark on December 3, 2025. This depreciation weighs differently on firms across the oil and gas sector depending on their business models, creating both risks and benefits. 

How a Weak Rupee Benefits Some Oil and Gas Companies 

For upstream companies like ONGC and Oil India, a weaker rupee brings gains. Their earnings are significantly dollar-linked due to crude exports. Every ₹1 depreciation in the rupee improves their Earnings Per Share (EPS) by approximately 1% to 2%.  

With the rupee already down by 5% in 2025, such firms may see noticeable tailwinds in profitability despite global price volatility, as per news reports. 

Petronet LNG also benefits from the rupee's fall, as its regasification margins are US dollar-based. A ₹1 drop against the greenback leads to an EPS increase between 1% and 3%, making forex trends a key metric for performance tracking. 

Mixed Effects for Integrated Giants 

Reliance Industries, a major player in the integrated energy space, experiences a dual impact. On the downside, it imports crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and ethane, all of which gets costlier.  

However, its Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) are US dollar-denominated, balancing the currency hit to a degree. This makes the net impact subject to how much of its earnings come from refining versus imports. 

Read More: Indian Rupee Plunges to Historic Low Near 90 Against US Dollar! 

Currency Pressure on Downstream and City Gas Distributors 

Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) including HPCL, BPCL, and Indian Oil distinctly gain from the rupee slide. Every ₹1 of depreciation boosts their EPS by up to 11%, as most of their product pricing is locally aligned while input costs are in dollars, as per news reports. 

This forex effect effectively shields much of their margin structure from global oil volatility. 

Conversely, City Gas Distributors like Mahanagar Gas, Indraprastha Gas, and Gujarat Gas are adversely impacted. Being heavy LNG importers, a weaker rupee inflates their input costs. The result: an EPS contraction ranging from 4% to 11% depending on exposure intensity. 

Conclusion 

A record low rupee has divergent effects across India's oil and gas sector. Upstream explorers and some downstream entities see earnings support, while gas distributors face cost escalations. The net impact varies by company structure, operational exposure, and global commodity factors. 

Disclaimer: This blog has been written exclusively for educational purposes. The securities or companies mentioned are only examples and not recommendations. This does not constitute a personal recommendation or investment advice. It does not aim to influence any individual or entity to make investment decisions. Recipients should conduct their own research and assessments to form an independent opinion about investment decisions. 

Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.