BPCL, IOCL and Other Refiners Rose Up to 8% After Trump Announced 2 Week Ceasefire Amid Cooling Crude Oil

US President Donald Trump has declared a two-week suspension of US military operations against Iran, creating a window for diplomatic negotiations. The pause is contingent upon the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments.

The announcement came via Truth Social shortly after Wall Street futures began trading following the close of the regular session, signaling a swift policy shift with global market implications.

BPCL shares saw a spike of over 6%, while HPCL shares rose up to 8% and IOCL shares saw gains of over 5% amid the cooling crude oil.

Oil Markets React Sharply

Crude oil prices were the most immediate casualty of the ceasefire development. Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plunged as much as 17% during early Asian trading, dropping below the $100-per-barrel mark.

This sharp reversal follows a recent surge driven by escalating geopolitical tensions. Earlier, WTI had spiked to $116.9 per barrel after reports of US strikes on Kharg Island, while Brent had briefly tested the $120 level but struggled to hold those gains.

Interestingly, WTI had traded at a premium to Brent over the past two sessions, with the spread widening to levels last seen during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Mixed Impact on Energy Companies

The sharp correction in crude prices presents a mixed outlook for oil companies.

Lower prices typically weigh on upstream producers such as ONGC and Oil India, whose revenues are directly tied to crude prices. For ONGC, every $1 per barrel decline can reduce annual revenue by approximately ₹300–₹400 crore.

On the other hand, downstream refiners, including HPCL, BPCL, and Indian Oil Corporation, stand to benefit. A $1 per barrel drop in crude prices can boost their EBITDA by an estimated ₹200–₹300 crore, improving profitability in the near term.

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