India’s Oil Imports from Russia Likely to Fall to 3 Year Low in December

As per news report, India’s Russian oil inflows are expected to decline to a 3-year low in December as refiners adjust sourcing strategies to avoid breaching tightened Western countries sanctions. December volumes are forecast between 6,00,000 and 6,50,000 bpd, a sharp fall from November’s 1.87 million bpd. 

Russian Crude Shipments Face Sharp Decline 

As per Kpler provisional data, India is set to receive 1.87 million bpd of Russian crude in November, compared with 1.65 million bpd in October, marking a 2 % rise. The upcoming December drop follows the November 21 deadline for buyers to halt dealings with Rosneft and Lukoil under recent US sanctions. 

Sanctions Prompt Refiners to Shift Suppliers 

US, EU and UK measures have increased scrutiny, leading Indian refiners to act cautiously. Preliminary lifting plans indicate December arrivals could fall to 6,00,000–6,50,000 bpd for entities such as Indian Oil, Nayara Energy and Reliance, including some November loading parcels. 

Read More: Crude Oil Prices Extend Losses on Russia-Ukraine Deal Hopes! 

Most Refiners Pause Russian Purchases 

As per news reports, several Indian refiners including Mangalore Refinery, Hindustan Petroleum and HPCL Mittal Energy have paused Russian oil purchases. Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum are sourcing only from non-sanctioned suppliers, while Nayara Energy continues to process Russian crude exclusively. 

Reliance Adjusts Processing Strategy 

Reliance loaded precommitted Russian cargoes until October 22 and will process any shipment arriving after November 20 only at its domestic oriented refinery. The company operates 2 large refining units, one focused on the export market. 

India’s US crude intake in October reached its highest level since June 2024 as refiners used an arbitrage window. India also faces pressure to increase US energy purchases after Washington raised tariffs on Indian imports to 50 %. 

Conclusion 

The expected decline in December volumes reflects India’s response to recent sanction rules and operational caution within refiners. Shifts in sourcing patterns continue to influence the country’s crude import mix. 

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