Shell Projects Global LNG Demand to Surge by 2040 and 2050

Shell plc has projected strong long-term growth in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand, driven largely by increasing energy needs in Asia. 

According to the company, global LNG demand is expected to rise significantly from current levels as countries continue to rely on cleaner fuels to meet their energy requirements while transitioning toward lower-carbon energy systems.

Revised LNG Demand Forecast

Shell estimates that global LNG demand could grow by 54% to 68% by 2040 and by 45% to 85% by 2050 compared to the 422 million metric tons recorded in 2025. The company has narrowed its 2040 forecast range to between 650 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) and 710 mtpa. It has also introduced a longer-term outlook for 2050, projecting global LNG demand between 610 mtpa and 780 mtpa.

Previously, Shell had predicted that LNG demand would reach between 630 mtpa and 718 mtpa by 2040. The updated estimates reflect changing market dynamics and evolving global energy demand patterns. The company also plans to expand its LNG sales by about 4% to 5% annually as part of its long-term strategy.

Asia Expected to Drive Growth

Asia is expected to be the key driver of LNG demand growth over the coming decades. Shell noted that around 70% of the increase in LNG consumption by 2040 will come from Asian markets. Rapid economic growth, rising energy consumption, and efforts to shift from coal to cleaner fuels are likely to support LNG demand in the region.

The company also highlighted that while natural gas consumption may peak in the 2030s in some developed regions such as Europe and Japan, LNG demand is still projected to grow globally due to increasing imports in emerging markets.

Investor Concerns and Climate Debate

Despite Shell’s optimistic outlook, some investors and climate groups have raised concerns about the long-term viability of LNG. At the company’s 2025 annual general meeting, the investor group Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility (ACCR) received around 21% support for a resolution questioning Shell’s LNG demand projections.

Investors asked the company to clarify how its LNG growth strategy aligns with global energy transition goals and its target of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Critics also pointed out that geopolitical crises and price spikes could affect future LNG demand.

Also Read: India Curbs Gas Supply to Industries After Qatar Halts LNG Production Amid Gulf Tensions!

Conclusion

Shell maintains that LNG will play a critical role in the future energy mix as a transition fuel that supports renewable energy systems. While demand is expected to grow strongly, the debate over its environmental and economic viability is likely to continue as the global energy transition accelerates.

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