Global LNG Supply Disruptions from Middle East Conflict Expected to Persist Until 2027: IEA

Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets are projected to remain tight until 2027, primarily due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East which has severely disrupted supply chains. 

Impact of Middle East Conflict on LNG Supply 

The disruption in global LNG markets is attributed largely to the conflict in the Middle East, which has impeded shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.  

As a result, nearly 20% of global LNG supply has been removed from circulation since early March. The supply reduction has caused significant price spikes in Asia and Europe, leading to a decrease in demand in these regions. 

Asia has seen various countries switching fuels to manage the impact, while Europe's gas consumption dropped by about 4% in March due to increased renewable energy generation. 

Infrastructure Delays in Qatar 

Damage to crucial liquefaction infrastructure in Qatar is causing substantial delays in future supply chains.  

This setback is expected to delay the next wave of global LNG supply, reinforcing a supply shortfall of around 120 billion cubic metres between 2026 and 2030. 

Read More: GAIL Share Price in Focus; Flags Off LNG Vessel Energy Fidelity from US to Support India’s Energy Supply Chain! 

Previous Easing and Market Reversal 

Before the onset of the conflict, the LNG market experienced a period of relative calm during the winter of 2025–26.  

Increased supply from North America had contributed to a 12% year-on-year rise in global LNG trade between October and February.  

However, March saw this trend reverse, with global LNG production falling by 8% compared to the previous year, mainly due to decreased exports from Qatar and the UAE. 

Conclusion 

The Middle East conflict has presented significant challenges to the global LNG supply, leading to tight markets predicted to persist until 2027. With infrastructure damages in Qatar and issues in shipping routes, these disruptions underline the need for diversified supply sources and sustained investments in the LNG sector. 

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