India to Enter Upper-Middle-Income Group by 2030: SBI Report

India is expected to transition into the upper-middle-income category by 2030, according to a report by SBI Research. Under the World Bank classification, countries are grouped based on per capita Gross National Income (GNI) measured in US dollars. The current threshold for an upper-middle-income country is around $4,500 per capita. 

The report also projects that India will become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028, moving ahead of Germany, while the United States and China are expected to remain the two largest economies. 

Changing Global Income  

World Bank data shows a steady change in the global income distribution over the past three decades. In 1990, out of 218 countries, 51 were classified as low income and 39 as high income. By 2024, the number of low-income countries declined to 26, while high-income countries rose to 87. 

The data indicates that several economies have gradually moved into higher income categories over time, supported by long-term growth in per capita income. 

India’s Income Progression Over Time 

India moved from low-income to lower-middle-income status in 2007, nearly 60 years after Independence. During this period, per capita GNI increased from $90 in 1962 to $910 in 2007, showing an annual growth rate of about 5.3%. 

Since then, income growth has gathered pace. India crossed $1,000 per capita income in 2009, reached $2,000 by 2019, and achieved the $3,000 level within the next seven years. Per capita income is estimated to reach $4,000 by 2030. 

Expansion of Economic Size 

India’s overall economic size has expanded steadily. The economy reached $1 trillion after six decades, followed by $2 trillion in 2014, $3 trillion in 2021, and $4 trillion by 2025. The report estimates that India could reach $5 trillion by 2027-28 and $10 trillion by 2035-36. 

India’s position in global rankings has improved from 14th in 1990 to fourth in 2025. 

Requirements for High-income Status 

To reach high-income status by 2047, per capita GNI would need to grow at around 7.5% annually, based on current thresholds. If the threshold rises to $18,000, the required growth rate would increase to about 8.9%, alongside nominal GDP growth of roughly 11.5% in dollar terms. 

Read More: IMF Lifts India’s 2025 Growth Forecast To 7.3% Amid Easing Tariff Impact! 

Conclusion 

The report outlines a timeline under which India is expected to enter the upper-middle-income category by 2030, with longer-term income classification dependent on sustained growth and future revisions to global income benchmarks. 

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