India's Exports to US Decline 28.5% in Past 5 Months Amid US Tariffs

India’s exports to the United States, its largest export market, have faced a steep decline amid aggressive tariff escalations.  

According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), shipments fell from $8.83 billion in May to $6.31 billion in October 2025, marking a 28.5% contraction in just 5 months. 

Key Development: Tariff Spike and Export Impact 

The decline followed successive tariff hikes by the US, beginning at 10% on April 2, rising to 25% on August 7, and reaching 50% by late August.  

GTRI reported that Indian goods became among the most heavily taxed globally, with China facing 30% tariffs and Japan at 15%.  

Even tariff-exempt categories such as smartphones, pharmaceuticals and petroleum products fell 25.8%, dropping from $3.42 billion in May to $2.54 billion in October. 

Statements & Sector-wise Breakdown 

Products subject to uniform global tariffs including iron, steel, aluminium, copper and auto parts accounted for 7.6% of exports in October and declined 23.8% to $480 million. The steepest fall occurred in labour-intensive categories such as gems and jewellery, solar panels, textiles, garments, chemicals and seafoods, where tariffs of 50% were applied exclusively on India.  

These goods, representing 52.1% of shipments, fell 31.2% to $3.29 billion. Smartphone exports alone dropped nearly $790 million, slipping from $2.29 billion in May to $1.50 billion in October, while pharmaceuticals dipped 1.6% and petroleum products fell 15.5%. 

Impact & Outlook 

GTRI stated that in metals and auto parts, the export decline reflected weakening US demand rather than loss of competitiveness.  

It also warned that the Export Promotion Mission, approved on November 12 but still not implemented, needs immediate activation with clear guidelines, regular disbursals and stronger funding beyond the current cap of ₹4,200 crore.  

Read More: Adani Group Plans $5 Billion Investment in Google's India AI Data Centre! 

Conclusion 

The sharp reversal in export performance underscores the challenge facing India’s trade competitiveness in its largest market. Labour-intensive sectors, which generate significant employment, have been disproportionately affected by the 50% tariff regime. With tariff pressure rising faster than policy support, the Export Promotion Mission and negotiations with Washington will play a critical role in protecting export momentum.  

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