India GDP Expected to Reach 7.5% In Q2 FY26: SBI Research Report

India’s economic momentum appears to have strengthened in the July–September quarter, with new analysis indicating that GDP growth could rise to about 7.5% for Q2 FY26. A fresh assessment from SBI’s research team highlights improved festive consumption following GST rationalisation, together with steady gains across investment and services activity. 

Festive Boost and Broad Sectoral Acceleration 

SBI’s report noted that 83% of key consumption and demand indicators across agriculture, industry, and services recorded faster growth in Q2, compared with 70% in the previous quarter. The analysis attributed this rise to stronger rural spending, increasing investments, and the GST rate of revisions that helped revive festive buying sentiment.  

The model-based nowcast places real GDP growth at roughly 7.5% for the quarter, with the potential for a higher-than-expected outcome when official data is released later in the month. The Reserve Bank of India has projected Q2 growth at 7%. 

Stronger Tax Collections and Expanding Consumer Spending 

The study suggests that GST receipts for November could reach about ₹1.49 lakh crore, reflecting a 6.8% annual increase. Consumer activity also picked up notably in credit card usage, with higher spending recorded in categories such as autos, electronics, groceries, furnishing, and travel.  

Around 38% of e-commerce transactions were directed toward utilities and services, while supermarkets and grocery purchases accounted for 17%. Mid-tier cities saw the fastest growth in spending habits. Debit card payments similarly showed an uptick across major states in September and October, supported by GST rationalisation measures. 

Read More: India May Enter Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index After Positive FPI Feedback! 

Conclusion 

The report indicates that India’s near-term economic outlook remains anchored by resilient domestic demand, softer inflation, and the support of GST 2.0 reforms, which are expected to strengthen consumption and broaden overall economic activity. 

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