Capex and Infrastructure Push to Fuel 9-13% Industrial Credit Growth in First Half of 2026: Ficci-IBA Survey

The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry-Indian Banks’ Association (Ficci-IBA) survey forecasts a 9-13% growth in industrial credit for the January-June period of 2026, primarily driven by a revival in capital expenditure and infrastructure demand. 

Factors Driving Industrial Credit Growth 

The anticipated growth in industrial credit is attributed to a steady expansion supported by capital expenditure revival and infrastructure demand.  

The survey indicates that public-sector banks are optimistic, expecting higher growth due to improved asset quality and strengthened capital buffers.  

In contrast, small finance banks and cooperative banks predict a more conservative growth rate of 7-9%, reflecting their limited exposure to large industrial borrowers. 

Sectoral Demand and Credit Growth 

Infrastructure sectors, including power, roads, and telecom, are expected to witness significant demand for term loans in the next 6 months.  

Other sectors like metals, iron and steel, real estate, and construction are also anticipated to see increased borrowing activity.  

The demand for working capital loans is expected to rise in textiles, followed by auto components and pharmaceuticals. 

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Private and Foreign Banks' Growth Expectations 

Private banks show a diversified approach, indicating a selective yet growth-oriented stance towards corporate lending.  

Foreign banks expect growth in the 11-13% range, influenced by global liquidity conditions and capital allocation priorities.  

The survey highlights that commercial real estate is expected to see high growth in term loan demand, followed by NBFCs and tourism-related sectors. 

Conclusion 

The Ficci-IBA survey projects a steady growth in industrial credit, driven by infrastructure and capex revival. Public-sector banks are optimistic about higher growth, while small finance and cooperative banks maintain a conservative outlook. Key sectors like infrastructure and real estate are expected to lead the demand for term loans. 

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