India's Solar Module Makers Headed for Shake-up Due to Overcapacity: ICRA Analysts

India’s solar module manufacturing landscape to undergo consolidation over the next 3 to 5 years, say ICRA analysts. The industry currently has about 110 GW of authorised capacity under the approved list of models and manufacturers, although only 70–75% of this base is equipped to transition to advanced technologies such as TOPCon and bifacial modules.  

With manufacturing capacity projected to rise to 165 GW and annual solar installations hovering around 45–50 GW, the potential for overcapacity is becoming evident. 

Technology Shifts and Scale Requirements 

Bifacial panels, which draw sunlight from both sides, and TOPCon modules, known for improved electron flow and lower losses, are shaping industry standards.  

As per the news reports, Girishkumar Kadam, Senior Vice President and Group Head at ICRA, said, “The manufacturing segment requires scale and integrated presence across the value chain, which is technology- and capital-intensive.”  

He added that not all companies will be able to maintain such scale, making consolidation “inevitable.” The government’s plan for cell makers to integrate backwards into ingot and wafer production by 2028 to reduce reliance on Chinese imports is expected to intensify investment needs. 

Market Pressures and Export Outlook 

The domestic module market is seeing increased competition alongside falling prices driven by global oversupply and China’s dominant position in the solar value chain. Exports to the US, one of India’s key destinations, are expected to slow due to investigations into Chinese components in Indian modules and the impact of higher tariffs.  

Ankit Jain, Vice President and Co-Group Head at ICRA, noted, “Players with older technologies and only module capacities will likely be the first to exit the space, while companies with a deeper integration in producing cells, ingots and wafers stand to benefit in the long run.” 

Read More: Servotech Renewable Share Price in Focus on Securing ₹73.70 Crore Rooftop Solar Project 

Conclusion 

As technology requirements rise and global conditions shift, India’s solar module manufacturing industry is entering a phase of structural adjustment. The combination of overcapacity, investment demands and export challenges is expected to reshape the competitive landscape significantly. 

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