The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised India’s GDP growth forecast for FY27 to 6.5%, up from 6.4% projected in January, as per news reports.
The change follows a reduction in additional US tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 10%, which is expected to ease pressure on exports. The revision comes despite continued uncertainty linked to the ongoing conflict in West Asia.
The IMF has lowered its global growth estimate for 2026 to 3.1%, compared with 3.3% projected earlier.
Growth across emerging markets and developing economies is expected to slow to 3.9%, down from 4.4% in the previous year.
The downgrade is indicative of the economic impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly on trade, energy flows, and financial conditions.
India’s growth is expected to remain at 6.5% in both FY27 and FY28. The IMF has cited stronger-than-expected performance in FY26 as a supporting factor.
External conditions, including easing trade restrictions, are also expected to contribute. However, the projection remains lower than estimates by other institutions.
Retail inflation is projected to rise to 4.7% in FY27, after easing in FY26 due to lower food prices.
The IMF also expects India’s current account balance to remain in deficit, with estimates ranging between 0.9% and 2.0% of GDP over the forecast period.
Unemployment is projected at 4.9%, indicating limited change in labour market conditions.
Global trade growth is expected to slow to 2.8% in 2026 from 5.1% in 2025, before recovering to 3.8% in 2027.
The IMF has noted that disruptions in West Asia could affect tourism and remittance flows in countries such as India, which may in turn impact domestic demand. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside.
The IMF’s FY27 growth estimate is below projections by the Reserve Bank of India and the Asian Development Bank, both of which have forecast 6.9% growth.
The World Bank has projected 6.6%, while other agencies have estimated growth in a range of 6.0% to 7.1%.
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The IMF’s latest update points to steady growth in India against a weaker global backdrop, with trade developments and geopolitical risks continuing to influence the outlook.
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Published on: Apr 15, 2026, 11:24 AM IST
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