Nifty Weekly Expiry Outlook for 9th June 2022

1. Monthly Time-frame Analysis :

• From the lows of Mar20, Nifty rallied from the level of 7500 to 18500 between Apr20 to Oct21 (19 Months)
• Since Oct 21, Nifty’s rally halted and gone into ‘Consolidation Phase’ till date.
• Recently, in May month Nifty formed a Hammer pattern from the support zone of 15700-16000.

2. Weekly Time-frame Analysis :

• Nifty in a falling range with Lower High – Lower Low formation.
• Found Support at 15700 levels.
• From the support of 15700 levels, Nifty started moving upwards, with 3 green weekly candles.
• However, last week candle forms a Shooting Star pattern at 38.2 Fibonacci level forming resistance at 16800 level.

                 

3. Daily Time-frame Analysis :

• Gap of May 05 got filled in past week.
• From the Support of 15700, Nifty formed W pattern and broke the resistance of 16400.
• In Past week, Nifty formed tested 16400 level and moved up-to 16800.
• On Friday, formed a bearish Marubozu candle from the high of 16800.

4. Hourly Time-frame :

• From the tight range of 16450 – 16700, Nifty gave a false breakout and then reversed back from the high of 16800.

Time-frame Analysis Summary:

Monthly – Consolidation phase with Support of 15700.

Weekly – Falling Range with LH-LL formation, took support of 15700 & then Shooting star candle with High of 16800.

Daily – Breakout of resistance level of 16400 with W pattern, with Red Marubozu candle with high of 16800.

Hourly – Impulsive down-move from the high of 16800.

Range for Current Week:

Narrow Range: Support 16400 – Resistance 16800

Broader Range: Support 16000 – Resistance 17200

Possible Scenarios:

1. Nifty can moves up to 16700-16800 level and shows weakness and starts falling again.
2. Nifty can moves down to 16450 levels and shows support and start moving up.
3. Nifty can breaks16800 resistance and can go up to 17200.
4. Nifty can breaks 16450 support, can go down to 16000.
5. Nifty can be in narrow range.

Possible Strategy:

1. Scenario1: Buy ATM Put option or Sell OTM Call Option (with SL)
2. Scenario2: Buy ATM Call option or Sell OTM Put Option (with SL)
3. Scenario3: Buy ATM Call option or Sell OTM Put Option (with SL)
4. Scenario4: Buy ATM Put option or Sell OTM Call Option (with SL)
5. Scenario5: Short Strangle (Short Call 16800, Short Put 16400)
6. Scenario6: Short Strangle (Short Call 17200, Short Put 16000)

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