Gold Long-Tern Outlook Remains Positive Amid Shifting Demand: World Gold Council

In June 2025, Gold prices recorded marginal gains, ending the month at US$3,287/oz, up just 0.3%. As mentioned in the report by World Gold Council, the first half of the month saw support from a softer US dollar, geopolitical unease, and a dip in US Treasury yields, while the latter part was characterised by investor rotation toward riskier assets. This shift limited further upward momentum in the yellow metal.

As we moved into July 2025, concerns around global trade and sustained geopolitical tensions provided renewed support. Gold prices have climbed 2% month-to-date, building on gold's impressive 28% year-to-date surge in USD terms.

In India, local gold prices mirrored global movements. June closed with a 0.7% uptick to ₹95,676/10g, and July has so far added another 1%, taking prices to ₹97,095/10g.

Jewellery Demand Slows; Investment Gold Shines

After a strong start to the year, retail jewellery demand softened in June and early July, as the wedding season ended and consumers faced price fatigue. Elevated gold rates led to cautious spending, with many postponing purchases or shifting toward lightweight, lower-karat, or studded jewellery. The trend of exchanging old gold continued to gain ground, as buyers looked to manage their budgets more efficiently.

However, investment demand proved resilient. Bars, coins, and plain chains—often seen as hybrid investment items—remained in favour, particularly in lower weights (under 10g). 

Also Read: Check Gold and Silver Prices Across New Delhi and Other Cities for July 18, 2025!

Corporate Jewellers Outperform

India’s leading listed jewellery retailers posted strong April–June results, reporting 18–31% year-on-year revenue growth. This performance was largely price-driven, as volume growth remained limited. A ~32% rise in gold prices, combined with festival and wedding-season demand in April–May lifted toplines.

Retailers responded to price pressures with strategies like promoting old gold exchange, which was involved in up to 40% of sales in some cases. 

RBI Resumes Buying Gold

The Reserve Bank of India resumed gold accumulation in June, adding 0.4 tonnes—its first purchase since March. This brings the country’s total gold reserves to a record 880 tonnes.

However, 2025 has seen a significant slowdown in official purchases. RBI added just 3.8 tonnes in H1 2025, the smallest first-half increase in six years and a marked decline from 37.1 tonnes in H1 2024. The central bank appears to be adopting a more cautious approach, potentially in response to elevated global gold prices and evolving macroeconomic conditions.

Gold Outlook

While near-term jewellery demand may remain subdued due to high prices and seasonal factors, the medium- to long-term outlook for gold remains constructive. Investment demand, particularly via ETFs and bars, continues to provide support, and central banks are expected to stay net buyers, albeit more selectively. 

Disclaimer: This blog has been written exclusively for educational purposes. The securities mentioned are only examples and not recommendations. This does not constitute a personal recommendation/investment advice. It does not aim to influence any individual or entity to make investment decisions. Recipients should conduct their own research and assessments to form an independent opinion about investment decisions.