India’s GDP Likely Grew 7.3% in July–September, Retains Fastest-Growing Economy Tag

India’s economy is estimated to have expanded 7.3% in the July–September quarter, maintaining its position as the fastest-growing major economy. Growth was driven by robust consumer demand and front-loading of production and exports amid global trade uncertainties.

The Ministry of Statistics will release official GDP data for Q2 FY26 later today. Economists expect moderation in the coming quarters as external headwinds persist.

Key Drivers of Growth

Manufacturers accelerated output and exports ahead of anticipated U.S. tariff changes, providing a temporary boost. The government’s monthly economic report highlighted that India is well-positioned to withstand trade-related challenges through fiscal support and easing inflation.

GVA and Sectoral Trends

Gross Value Added (GVA), considered a more stable measure of economic activity, is projected to have grown 7.15% during the quarter. Services and manufacturing sectors are expected to lead growth, supported by festive season demand and infrastructure spending, while agriculture output remained steady despite erratic monsoon patterns.

Policy Measures and Global Context

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has implemented tax cuts and labour reforms to stimulate domestic activity while resisting U.S. pressure to lower tariffs on key sectors such as agriculture. These measures aim to sustain growth momentum amid global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties.

Outlook and IMF Projections

While Q2 performance underscores India’s economic strength, growth is expected to moderate in subsequent quarters due to slowing exports and global volatility. The International Monetary Fund projects India’s GDP to grow at 6.6% in FY26 and 6.2% in FY27, supported by structural reforms and investment-led expansion.

Read More: India to Hit $5 Trillion Economy in FY29.

Conclusion

India’s estimated 7.3% GDP growth in July–September highlights its resilience amid global challenges. Strong domestic demand, proactive policy measures and infrastructure investments remain key pillars of economic stability.

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