Oil Prices Edge Higher on Jan 2, 2026 as Markets Assess Geopolitical Risks and OPEC+ Outlook

Oil markets began the first trading sessions of 2026 on a steady note after a sharp decline in prices last year. 

Investors are closely watching geopolitical developments and the forthcoming OPEC+ meeting, where producers are expected to maintain current supply levels. 

Oil Prices at the Start of 2026

In early trading, crude prices showed modest gains. Brent crude futures for March delivery rose slightly to around $60.97 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures increased to approximately $57.55 per barrel.

The uptick followed a challenging 2025, during which both benchmarks declined by nearly 20% amid concerns over excess supply and uneven demand growth.

Focus on the Upcoming OPEC+ Meeting

Market attention is centred on the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for January 4, 2026. The producer group is widely expected to maintain its decision to pause additional output increases, as per news reports.

This stance was adopted late last year to help stabilise prices after sustained weakness.

Impact of Geopolitical Developments

Geopolitical factors have provided limited support to oil prices. The United States has introduced new sanctions targeting companies and vessels allegedly involved in facilitating Venezuelan oil exports, raising concerns over possible disruptions to supply. 

At the same time, tensions between Russia and Ukraine have resurfaced, with reports of strikes affecting Black Sea ports and related infrastructure.

Supply Dynamics and Market Pressures

The decline in oil prices during 2025 was largely attributed to a supply surplus. OPEC+ gradually rolled back earlier production cuts, while output from non-OPEC producers remained elevated. 

These conditions offset repeated concerns over geopolitical risks, keeping downward pressure on prices throughout much of the year.

Read More: Crude Oil Prices 2025 Recap: Fall on Oversupply and Demand Concerns.

Conclusion

Oil prices have started 2026 with cautious gains as markets weigh geopolitical risks against supply expectations from OPEC+. 

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