India's Gold Demand to Decline in 2026 as Jewellery Buying Slumps; Investment Demand Rises

India’s total gold consumption is expected to decline in 2026 after an 11 % drop in 2025, driven by higher prices that have reduced jewellery purchases while investment buying continues to grow as per report of World Gold Council (WGC), as per Reuters.  

Gold Demand Forecast for 2026 

The World Gold Council estimates total demand will lie between 600 tonnes and 700 tonnes in 2026, down from 710.9 tonnes recorded in 2025, the lowest level in 5 years. The decline reflects the impact of a 76.5% surge in domestic gold prices during 2025. 

Jewellery Consumption Decline 

Jewellery demand fell 24% in 2025 to 430.5 tonnes, the weakest level since 2020. Consumers cited volatile price movements that exceeded household budgets, prompting many to postpone purchases. 

Read More: India’s Gold Loan Portfolio Surges 41.9% YoY To ₹15.6 Lakh Crore in November 2025! 

Investment Demand and ETF Inflows 

Investment demand rose 17% in 2025 to 280.4 tonnes, representing roughly 40% of total consumption. Inflows into gold ETFs jumped 283 % year on year to a record ₹429.6 billion (≈ $4.67 billion).  

The rise in ETF inflows reflects a shift towards pure investment as equities showed modest gains of 10.5% in the Nifty 50. 

Scrap Gold Supply Trends 

Scrap gold supplies fell 19% in 2025 to 92.7 tonnes as owners held back material in anticipation of further price gains, despite frequent record highs in bullion. 

Conclusion 

In 2026 India’s gold market is set to see lower overall demand, driven by a sharp fall in jewellery consumption and a continued rise in investment buying, particularly through ETFs. Scrap supplies are also expected to remain subdued. 

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