India’s Sugar Exports Drop Below 5% After Tightened Export Controls

 As per news reports, India’s sugar industry is witnessing a major shift in trade dynamics as export volumes continue to fall sharply from earlier peak levels. The government has increasingly prioritised domestic availability amid concerns over lower output, weather disruptions and rising ethanol-linked demand for sugarcane. 

Sugar Exports Fall from Peak Levels 

India had emerged as a major global sugar exporter during SS21 and SS22 when production remained strong. Exports touched 7 million tonnes in SS21 against production of 31 million tonnes and climbed further to 11 million tonnes in SS22 when output reached a record 35.9 million tonnes. 

However, export momentum weakened significantly after that. Exports declined to 6.3 million tonnes in SS23 despite production of 33 million tonnes. In SS24, overseas shipments almost stopped, dropping to just 0.1 million tonnes against output of 32 million tonnes. 

Pushan Sharma, Director at Crisil Intelligence, said exports, which once contributed nearly 30% of total production during SS22, have now fallen to below 5% after export restrictions introduced in December 2023. 

A slight recovery was seen in SS25 with exports of 0.9 million tonnes, while provisional estimates for SS26 currently place exports at around 0.7 million tonnes. 

Weather Conditions Hit Sugar Recovery Rates 

Production concerns intensified during the current season after sugar recovery rates weakened more than expected in the later stages of crushing. 

Initial estimates for SS26 had projected output at around 30.5 million tonnes, but revised estimates now place production closer to 28-29 million tonnes. 

Late rainfall during the cane maturity period around October 2025 affected crops in Maharashtra and Karnataka by triggering flowering in sugarcane, which reduced sucrose recovery and lowered sugar yields. 

Sharma also highlighted concerns regarding a possible El Niño impact on the next sugar season, which could affect sowing levels and domestic availability during 2026-27. 

Government Focus Shifts Towards Domestic Supply Stability 

Although the Centre had approved exports of 1.59 million tonnes for SS26, only around 0.7 million tonnes had been shipped by mid-May. Following the export ban implemented on May 13, no further commercial exports are expected this season. 

Deepak Ballani, Director General of the Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association, said export approvals granted in November 2025 were based on production forecasts available at that time and a positive outlook for the season. 

However, production later moderated after key producing states including Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh reported weaker yields and weather-related disruptions. 

At the same time, increasing diversion of cane juice for ethanol manufacturing has reduced the availability of exportable sugar surplus. 

Read More: India Challenges UK Steel Import Restrictions at WTO with Japan and China! 

Conclusion 

India’s sugar market is increasingly moving towards supply protection and price stability as weather volatility, lower recovery rates and ethanol expansion reshape the country’s production and export outlook. 

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