Indian Pharmaceutical sector has got its own importance on the world map as India has got many advantages like low cost manufacturing and one of the best research & development capabilities. Rather the way India has managed to develop two vaccines for Covid-19 pandemic, only indicates towards strong research capabilities of India. The way India had provided support to the developed nations like USA for providing drugs during the Covid-19 pandemic, India has surely got an upper hand in terms of pharmaceutical capabilities.
Just to put the numbers in perspective, India is the largest provider of generic drugs globally. Indian pharmaceutical sector supplies over 50 percent of global demand for various vaccines, 40 percent of generic demand in the US and 25 percent of all medicine in the UK.
Globally, India ranks 3rd in terms of pharmaceutical production by volume and 14th by value. The domestic pharmaceutical industry includes a network of 3,000 drug companies and around 10,500 manufacturing units. There are many in the listed place and it has been a great wealth creating sector. Rather whenever the markets are witnessing volatility – it is the consistent pharmaceutical sector that provides support to the investors.
As we stated earlier, India enjoys an important position in the global pharmaceuticals sector. The country also has a large pool of scientists and engineers with a potential to steer the industry ahead to greater heights. Presently, over 80 percent of the antiretroviral drugs used globally to combat AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome) are supplied by Indian pharmaceutical firms.
India Pharmaceutical Sector Market Size
According to the Indian Economic Survey 2021, the domestic market is expected to grow 3x in the next decade. India’s domestic pharmaceutical market is estimated at USD 42 billion in 2021 and likely to reach USD 65 billion by 2024 and further expand to reach ~USD 120-130 billion by 2030. This provides good growth visibility over the next one decade.
India’s biotechnology industry comprises bio-pharmaceuticals, bio-services, bio-agriculture, bio-industry, and bio-informatics. The Indian biotechnology industry was valued at USD 64 billion in 2019 and is expected to reach USD 150 billion by 2025. India’s drugs and pharmaceuticals exports stood at USD 24.44 billion in FY21. The growth is likely to be strong in the coming few years. The following chart shows expected growth in the next few years.
As regards the growth factors, the R&D expenditure is the most important parameter. Over the years the R&D spend by top 100 pharma companies has been over 8 percent of their revenues. And going ahead we feel this spend is expected to increase consistently.
The API story is on its growth path and the leaders from the API segment like Divi’s Laboratories, Suven Pharmaceuticals, Laurus Labs, and Neuland Laboratories are expected to stand as beneficiaries. While most of the stocks have outperformed the benchmark indices, we believe the long term story still remains intact.
While we have already discussed the overall pharmaceutical growth prospects, there are various divisions of the pharmaceutical sector. One most important segment is Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API). Let’s have a look at the current scenario in the India API segment and what are the different growth factors for the company.
Indian API Market – Larger Growth Opportunity
The Indian API segment has been a growth opportunity and it is clearly visible from the fact that most companies from API segment have outperformed the benchmark indices and even the broader indices with a significant margin. There were various factors that helped the segment witness growth. Starting from China Factor, higher API prices and new customer enquiries. Add to that the other advantages like performance linked incentives (PLI), the move on the bourses was expected. As regards the market size now and expected growth the following chart shows growth opportunity.
Here while the Indian market is likely to grow with organic factors there is an additional opportunity coming from China. In Case of China, environmental factors have played a key role in shifting much of API production to Asia from Europe. Earlier it was China that got benefited, but along with supply chain issues, the pollution issue impacting the production in China, India API manufacturers standing benefited.
Along with the above growth opportunity as sector size is expanding, even the companies are going for backward integration. Rather the capex planned by the companies clearly indicates that the expansion is going to drive growth.
Following chart shows capex plans by Indian API players
If you take a look at the above chart, it clearly indicates that Indian API industry currently stands at USD 11 billion. In the next few years (in FY26) it is expected to be USD 24.10 billion. In terms of CAGR the Indian API growth story is better placed.
As regards the global share of Indian APIsthe following chart clearly indicates how China’s growthwould be modest and Indian growth would be better.
As seen in the above chart API sales contribution From India would increase to 9 percent in 2025 from the current levels of 6 percent.
Top 10 Pharmaceutical Companies on Market Capitalisation
While we have discussed the whole Pharma sector scenario and API growth story, here is the list of top ten pharma companies based on Market capitalisation. Let’s take a look at the chart showing the top ten list.
Along with the list based on the market capitalisation, we have also charted down other details like sales and profit after tax (PAT) for FY21 as a whole.
Annual Sales for FY21
Annual PAT for FY21
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
On the top of the list is Sun Pharmaceutical industries with a market cap standing at Rs 1,63,875 crore. As regards the company, Sun Pharmaceuticals is the largest pharmaceutical company from India and the fifth largest specialty generic company in the world. Its businesses include producing generics, branded generics, speciality, over the counter (OTC) products, anti-retrovirals (ARVs), active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and intermediates in the full range of dosage forms. It also produces specialty APIs.
As regards the revenues, it posted a topline of Rs 33498 crore in FY21 and PAT of Rs 2904 crore in FY21. On the pricing front it posted a 52 week high of Rs 721 on May 11, 2021 and 52 week low of Rs 452 on October 29, 2020.
Divi’s Laboratories
Next on the list is Divi’s Laboratories with a market cap of Rs 1,22,276 crore as on July 13, 2021. As stated in the API growth story, Divi’s is a major player. Divi’s is currently the global market leader in 9 generic API’s. As regards the growth Ahead, Divi’s is planning to expand further into the contrast media segment which has a global market size of USD 4-6 billion. As regards the 52 week high price, it touched Rs 4625 on July 9, 2021. Its 52 week Low was 2153 on July 9, 2020.
Dr. Redy’s Laboratories
Dr.Reddy’s Laboratories stands third on the list with a market cap of Rs 90,452 crore. It has been in the news with its partnership for distribution and trials of Russian Covid-19 vaccine Sputnik. As regards the financial performance, it posted a topline of Rs 19,048 crore and bottomline of Rs 1984 crore for FY21. The stock had hit the 52 week high of Rs 5614 on July 7, 2021 and a 52 week low of Rs 3854 on July 9, 2020.
Cipla
The fourth on the list is Cipla with market Cap of Rs 77,889 crore. Established in 1935, Cipla is a leading pharmaceutical from India with presence across the world. The company has a vast portfolio with more than 1,500 products in the market. The company’s business is divided into three strategic units – APIs, respiratory and Cipla Global Access. Its largest market is India, followed by Africa and North America. As regards the price movement in the past one year, the 52 week High was Rs 997 as on June 30, 2021 and 52 week low was Rs 631 on July 14, 2020.
Cadila Healthcare
Cadila Healthcare stands fifth on the list with a market Cap of Rs 66,093 crore. As for the financial performance the company posted a topline of Rs 15102 crore and PAT of Rs 2134 crore in FY21. On price performance on bourses, its 52 week high was Rs 673 on May 12, 2021 and the 52 week low was Rs 350 on July 27, 2020.
Gland Pharma
(Recently Listed hence Chart is For 30 minutes Movement) (52 week High – Rs 2690 on July 12, 2021. 52 week Low Rs 1700 on November 20, 2020)
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
(52 week High – Rs 1064 on May 11, 2021. 52 week Low Rs 738 on September 24, 2020)
Lupin
(52 week High – Rs 1268 on June 2, 2021. 52 week Low Rs 828 on July 27, 2020)
Torrent Pharmaceuticals
(52 week High – Rs 3035 on July 2, 2021. 52 week Low Rs 2232 July 27, 2020)
Conclusion
As stated earlier the Indian Pharmaceutical sector holds a lot of potential. Especially as we discussed the API segment. Further though the last one year performance of stock prices indicates well up move seen by pharma companies, the sector as whole has under performed since 2017. This provides a good opportunity for the selective stocks from API segment to Witness growth going ahead.
