Following the strong closing of the previous week, we had a spectacular start to the week with a gap-up opening. The positive momentum continued to retest 17800; however, ahead of the mid-week holiday, some profit booking was seen at higher levels. In the following trading session, despite a bleak opening, the bulls remained in commanding positions. After repeatedly failing to cross 17800, we witnessed a sharp sell-off during the last two sessions to retest sub-17350 levels. Eventually after some respite, Nifty ended a tad above 17400 with a weekly loss of a percent.
During the week, the sell-off was triggered as Nifty failed to cross a key technical level of 17800, which is the 61.8% retracement of the recent down move. However, considering the recent positive development and head start to the week, we were of the view that Nifty would surpass the hurdle to reclaim 18000. Now, with two back-to-back weak sessions, the momentum is again in favour of bears. Despite this, we remain a bit hopeful and expect important levels to remain unbroken in coming week; especially after seeing prices showing resilience around the 200-SMA and forming a key technical pattern known as ‘Bullish Hammer’. It would however be very early to jump to any conclusion and considering the recent volatility, traders should ideally wait for the trend to establish. In such a scenario, Friday’s low around 17320 would be seen as immediate support followed by sacrosanct support at February’s swing low of 17250. On the flip side, the bearish gap left around 17570 – 17600 should be considered as immediate hurdles. In our sense, instead of swaying on both sides of the trend, traders should ideally prefer staying light on positions and keep accumulating quality propositions in a staggered manner.
The weak global cues and underperforming heavyweights (especially Reliance) were the major culprits in dragging our markets down. Going ahead, it would be crucial to keep a close tab on them as any positive development globally, can elevate the overall sentiments. Also, Nifty Midcap 100 outperformed as this index ended the week in green, forming a ‘hammer’ pattern around the recent trend line breakout levels. If the markets find some relief, we may see many midcap counters giving mesmerizing move. Traders are advised to focus on such counters that are likely to provide better trading opportunities.