India's GDP Growth at 7.0% for 2025 and 6.4% for 2026, Says Moody's

Moody’s Ratings expects India to remain one of the faster-growing economies in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, excluding Greater China. In its latest update, the agency has estimated India’s GDP growth at 7% in 2025, before easing to 6.4% in 2026. The projection is based mainly on steady spending within the country during a period of mixed global demand. 

APAC Growth Expected to Stay Stable 

Moody’s has kept a stable outlook for the wider APAC region for 2026. The region’s growth is estimated at 3.4% in 2026, slightly below the 3.6% projection for 2025, and a little above the 3.3% recorded in 2024. The report notes that growth in the region is likely to move at a steady pace, supported more by local demand than by a strong recovery in world trade. 

Emerging Markets Forecast to Drive the Region 

According to the report, India and Australia are expected to contribute the most to the region’s growth, led by domestic consumption. Australia’s GDP is projected to expand by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027.  

Other emerging markets mentioned include Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines, while advanced markets include Japan, Korea, Singapore and Australia. On a weighted basis, emerging markets in APAC are expected to grow 5.6%, while advanced markets are estimated to grow 1.3%. 

Rupee Depreciation and Sector Costs 

Moody’s also pointed to the impact of the Indian rupee’s depreciation against the US dollar. The weaker currency has raised costs in sectors where inputs are dollar-linked, such as oil and gas, aviation and telecom. These industries face a mismatch because a portion of their expenses are paid in dollars, while revenue is largely earned in rupees.  

The report notes that most companies rated in these sectors continue to maintain strong balance sheets and risk management practices. 

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Conclusion 

Moody’s projections place India ahead of most APAC economies over the next two years. The data highlights regional growth, the role played by emerging markets, and the cost impact of currency changes on sectors with dollar-linked inputs. 

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