Crude Oil Prices in Red on Nov 25 as Supply Concerns Offset Geopolitical Risks

Crude oil prices were little changed on Tuesday, pausing after Monday’s gains, as traders weighed concerns that global crude supply could exceed demand in 2026 against the uncertainty around Russian shipments. 

Brent crude slipped to $63.20 a barrel, while WTI edged down to $58.71.

Geopolitical Concerns and Russian Exports

Crude benchmarks had risen 1.3% in the previous session as doubts deepened over the possibility of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. With Western sanctions still curbing Russian crude and product flows, any delay or breakdown in negotiations fuels concerns about restricted supplies. However, the geopolitical risk premium remained modest, suggesting markets are more focused on upcoming supply–demand dynamics.

Support From Interest Rate Expectations

Despite oversupply concerns, oil prices found some support from growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December 9–10 meeting. Several Fed members have publicly backed a reduction, raising hopes of improved economic activity and stronger oil demand.

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Conclusion

Oil markets remain caught between geopolitical risks that could disrupt supply and a macroeconomic backdrop pointing toward a potential surplus in 2026. While the prospect of U.S. rate cuts may bolster sentiment, the broader outlook suggests a market leaning toward excess supply unless demand strengthens meaningfully.

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