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Oil Stocks Valuation: Indian Stocks Vs the Rest of the World

27 February 20246 mins read by Angel One
Explore the potential undervaluation of Indian oil companies compared to their global counterparts, citing metrics like PE ratio and EV/EBITDA.
Oil Stocks Valuation: Indian Stocks Vs the Rest of the World
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Oil companies play a dominant role in the energy industry, fueling our vehicles and powering our economies. Investors are always interested in identifying where the best values lie within this critical sector. Recently, there’s been a growing buzz about the potential undervaluation of Indian oil companies compared to their global counterparts.

Let’s dive into the numbers to see if there’s a real opportunity here.

Valuation Metrics: PE Ratio and EV/EBITDA

Two key metrics used to assess a company’s valuation are

Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio:

Indicates how much investors are willing to pay for every dollar of a company’s earnings. A higher PE ratio often suggests a belief in stronger future growth prospects.

Enterprise Value-to-Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EV/EBITDA):

Measures a company’s overall value in relation to its operating profits. This metric is often favoured as it factors in a company’s debt levels.

The Indian Advantage

Currently, the average PE ratio of global oil companies stands around 14.6. However, the average PE ratio for Indian oil companies is strikingly lower at about 7.38. This nearly 50% discount suggests that Indian oil companies may be significantly undervalued compared to their international peers.

Top 10 Global Oil Stocks

 

# Name Market Cap ($ billion) P/E Ratio Country
1 Saudi Aramco 2,055.81 15.45 Saudi Arabia
2 Exxon Mobil 413.98 10.35 United States
3 Chevron 285.89 11.42 United States
4 PetroChina 216.34 10.04 China
5 Shell 204.77 7.46 United Kingdom
6 TotalEnergies 150.78 8.15 France
7 ConocoPhillips 132.25 12.27 United States
8 Petrobras 114.06 0.86 Brazil
9 CNOOC 106.11 14.16 China
10 BP 100.34 4.09 United Kingdom
Average 9.42

To further bolster this observation, the EV/EBITDA ratio for Indian oil companies hovers in the range of 6 to 7. This also aligns with, and perhaps even suggests further undervaluation, compared to their global counterparts.

Why Are Indian Oil Stocks Cheaper?

# Name CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr. P/E EV / EBITDA
1 Reliance Industries 2,969.15 2,008,833.59 28.75 13.06
2 IOCL 173.30 244,721.06 5.20 4.15
3 BPCL 620.85 134,678.07 4.38 3.44
4 HPCL 528.45 74,963.15 4.46 4.46
5 MRPL 236.65 41,475.25 9.55 6.11
6 CPCL 928.45 13,825.67 4.49 3.39
7 Gandhar Oil Ref. 239.60 2,344.93 12.34 7.64
8 Resgen 91.20 191.33 40.96 15.96
Average 5.29 7.28

Several factors might contribute to this valuation gap

  • Market Perception: Indian markets can be seen as less stable or facing higher risks compared to developed markets. This could lead to a general discount applied to Indian companies.
  • Growth Potential: Global oil giants often operate across the entire supply chain, from exploration to refining. Indian oil companies might have a more limited scope, impacting their perceived growth potential.
  • Government Influence: Indian oil companies have a degree of state ownership, which can sometimes lead to decisions influenced by political factors rather than pure profit maximization.
  • The Investing Angle: The substantial valuation discount enjoyed by Indian oil companies presents a potentially intriguing investment opportunity. If market perceptions change, or these companies successfully expand and show strong growth, investors who get in early could see significant returns.

Important Note

Investing always carries risk. Before investing in any oil company, Indian or otherwise, it’s vital to conduct thorough research. This includes analyzing individual company financials, understanding the broader energy market, and considering your own risk tolerance.

Disclaimer: This blog has been written exclusively for educational purposes. The securities mentioned are only examples and not recommendations. It is based on several secondary sources on the internet and is subject to changes. Please consult an expert before making related decisions.

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