Negotiations for a trade deal between India and the United States, including a possible initial "mini-deal" with limited concessions, are now expected to be finalised by the fall season of 2025 (September to November in the U.S.). This new timeline comes despite earlier hopes from both sides to conclude an initial agreement before July 9.
Recent high-level discussions saw an Indian team led by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal visiting the U.S. last month, followed by a week-long trip to India by U.S. negotiators that concluded on June 10. While these talks were described as "productive" and showed progress towards a "mutually beneficial and balanced agreement," certain "sticky issues" continue to hinder a swift finalisation.
As per news reports, both nations have confirmed that they are working towards an agreement for the "first tranche" of a multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by Fall 2025. This deadline was first mentioned after Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the U.S. in February.
One of India's main concerns is the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on steel and aluminium imports. U.S. President Donald Trump recently doubled these tariffs to 50% on June 4, following an earlier hike to 25% in March. India had previously protested these tariffs at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and reserved the right to impose reciprocal tariffs, although bilateral discussions have since taken precedence.
On the U.S. side, a major sticking point is their desire for India to significantly open up its agricultural market. Indian officials have expressed concerns on this issue, and it remains a difficult hurdle in the negotiations.
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick had earlier expressed optimism about a trade deal materialising in the "not too distant future." The notional July 9 deadline for the trade deal is significant as it marks the end of President Trump's 90-day pause on his 'Liberation Day' tariff hikes, which could see new tariffs being imposed.
Read more: Centre Reduces Basic Customs Duty on Imported Crude Edible Oils to 10% from 20%
Despite the complexity of the unresolved issues, both India and the U.S. appear committed to advancing trade relations. The extended deadline for a potential "mini-deal" to Fall 2025 suggests a pragmatic approach to tackle the disagreements and find common ground for a mutually beneficial trade agreement, rather than rushing a deal that doesn't address the core concerns of both nations.
Disclaimer: This blog has been written exclusively for educational purposes. The securities mentioned are only examples and not recommendations. This does not constitute a personal recommendation/investment advice. It does not aim to influence any individual or entity to make investment decisions. Recipients should conduct their own research and assessments to form an independent opinion about investment decisions.
Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Published on: Jun 12, 2025, 1:25 PM IST
We're Live on WhatsApp! Join our channel for market insights & updates
Get the link to download the App
