India’s Natural Gas Consumption To Surge 60% By 2030 And More Than Double By 2040: PNGRB Study

India’s natural gas demand is forecast to increase significantly over the next two decades, according to a detailed study conducted by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB). The study outlines 2 growth trajectories: a moderate ‘Good-to-Go’ scenario and a more aggressive ‘Good-to-Best’ scenario.

Natural Gas Consumption In India Set To Grow Sharply

Under the Good-to-Go path, daily gas consumption is projected to rise from 187 million standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd) in 2023–24 to 297 mmscmd by 2030 and further to 496 mmscmd by 2040. Meanwhile, under the more optimistic Good-to-Best scenario, demand could reach 365 mmscmd by 2030 and 630 mmscmd by 2040.

City Gas Distribution To Lead The Growth Curve

City Gas Distribution (CGD), which includes compressed natural gas (CNG) for vehicles and piped natural gas (PNG) for households and industries, is expected to be the leading contributor to the demand rise.

In the base case, CGD demand is projected at 87 mmscmd by 2030 and 129 mmscmd by 2040. This represents 29% of total projected natural gas demand in 2030 and 44% by 2040, making CGD the single largest segment in the country’s gas usage profile.

Government Push For Energy Mix Transition

To meet its net-zero carbon goals by 2070, the Government of India aims to increase natural gas’s share in the overall energy mix from the current 7% to 15% by 2030. This strategic shift supports cleaner energy use across key sectors like transportation, industry, and domestic fuel consumption.

The CGD sector plays a vital role in this plan by offering a lower-emission alternative to conventional fuels and enhancing accessibility to cleaner energy sources for households and businesses alike.

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Industrial Demand To See Steady Rise

While city gas usage will dominate, industrial applications will continue to be an important part of India’s gas growth story. Fertiliser sector consumption is expected to rise modestly from 58 mmscmd in 2023–24 to 72.9 mmscmd by 2040.

Similarly, demand from refineries and petrochemical industries is projected to almost double to 43.3 mmscmd by 2030, reflecting increased industrial activity and modernisation efforts.

LNG Demand And Import Dependency To Expand

India currently imports approximately 50% of its natural gas requirement. With domestic consumption rising, liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are also expected to more than double by 2030. This growth will support energy diversification, infrastructure development, and regional connectivity.

Additionally, LNG trucking, a model that has seen success in China, is expected to gain momentum after 2030. This method of transportation could offer a viable substitute to diesel for long-haul freight, aiding India’s decarbonisation journey.

Conclusion 

The projections by PNGRB paint a clear picture of a growing natural gas economy in India. The rise in consumption across urban transport, households, and industries aligns with national goals of sustainability, energy security, and net-zero emissions.

As the energy mix evolves, the importance of infrastructure expansion, domestic production support, and efficient import systems will be critical to meeting the growing demand.

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