IMD Predicts Early Monsoon: What It Means for Farmers, Inflation, and Food Supply

India is expecting a major boost to its agricultural sector as the southwest monsoon is set to arrive in Kerala on May 27, marking the earliest onset in six years, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Early Monsoon Likely to Boost Kharif Crop Yields, Ease Inflation

This development is raising hopes for a bumper Kharif crop season, which could positively impact food production, rural demand, and inflation.

As per news reports, the early rains will benefit key crops like paddy, maize, cotton, soybean, and oilseeds, which rely heavily on monsoon water. Nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall comes from the southwest monsoon, and about half of the country's farmland is dependent on it.

A timely and generous monsoon could ease pressure on food supply, reduce inflation, and lower diesel and electricity use for irrigation. This in turn could support rural spending and overall economic sentiment.

IMD Forecast and Historical Trends

The IMD has predicted an early onset in Kerala by May 27, compared to May 30 in 2024, and even later in previous years. An above-normal monsoon is also expected, which bodes well not only for Kharif sowing but also for reservoir levels and the Rabi season.

Oilseeds like soybean and horticulture crops such as onions and tomatoes may also see increased acreage due to the favourable weather.

Government’s Optimistic Target

Encouraged by this forecast, the Indian government has set a record foodgrain production target of 354.64 million tonnes for the 2025-26 crop year an increase of nearly 13 million tonnes from the previous year.

Early rains in northern states like Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh could especially help paddy sowing, replenish groundwater, and reduce the strain on irrigation systems. This may also aid the government in lifting bans on exports of commodities like wheat, benefiting both farmers and traders.

Inflation and Rainfall Outlook

The RBI has flagged weather-related risks as a key concern for food inflation. However, strong rainfall could help stabilise prices. According to IMD projections, most parts of the country are likely to see above-normal rainfall, except for some regions in Northwest, Northeast, and Southern India.

Private weather agency Skymet also forecasts normal rainfall at around 103% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

Caution Despite Optimism

While the early monsoon is a positive sign, the real impact will depend on the intensity and distribution of rainfall. Past trends have shown that monsoon progress can sometimes stall in central India, delaying its advance to the northern regions.

Read More: Will April Inflation Data Clear the Path for a June Rate Cut?

Conclusion

The early arrival of the southwest monsoon in India, expected to hit Kerala by May 27, brings optimism for the agricultural sector, rural economy, and overall inflation outlook. 

While the forecast of above-normal rainfall bodes well for crop yields and food security, its actual impact will depend on the timely and even distribution of rains across regions. If the monsoon progresses as anticipated, it could significantly support economic growth and ease pressure on both farmers and consumers alike.

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