Crude Oil Prices Fall on July 1 as OPEC+ Output Hike Looms

Oil prices declined sharply on Tuesday, retreating to levels last seen before the recent escalation between Israel and Iran. Easing geopolitical tensions, improved supply outlook, and anticipation of an OPEC+ production hike have contributed to the downturn.

Brent crude futures for September delivery dropped by 0.3% to $66.57 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by the same margin to $63.64 per barrel as of late Tuesday night.

The prices are at their lowest point since June 11, right before the Israel-Iran conflict erupted. With a ceasefire appearing stable between the two nations, immediate supply disruption concerns have diminished.

OPEC+ Meeting in Focus

All eyes are now on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), which is scheduled to convene later this week. The group is expected to continue unwinding the production cuts it had maintained over the past two years to stabilize global oil markets.

According to recent Reuters reports, OPEC+ is poised to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in August. This would follow similar hikes in May, June, and July pushing the total cumulative increase in supply this year to 1.78 million barrels per day.

US Policy and Trade Tensions Add to Market Jitters

Trade tensions are also building as the July 9 deadline set by President Trump for concluding trade agreements draws near. On Monday, Trump criticized Japan's rice import practices and hinted at halting trade negotiations with Tokyo. Countries like Japan and India are reportedly at risk of such duties, which could escalate global trade disputes.

Global Demand Outlook Clouded

Fears of deteriorating global trade relationships and rising economic uncertainty have added downward pressure on oil prices. Investors worry that escalating tariffs and protectionist measures could weaken global growth, thereby dampening energy demand.

Read More: Massive Oil Discovery in Andaman Sea? Here's Why It Could Transform India’s Energy Future.

Conclusion

Oil markets are navigating a complex landscape of geopolitical cooling, supply recalibrations, and policy-driven economic risks. As prices fall back to pre-conflict levels, traders remain wary of OPEC+ moves and US trade actions that could further influence market direction. The coming weeks will be critical for gauging whether crude prices stabilise or enter a new cycle of volatility.

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