On July 14, 2025, crude oil prices saw a mild uptick, building on the over 2% surge from the previous session. Investors responded to the possibility of new US sanctions on Russia and a forthcoming statement by President Donald Trump, as per news reports.
This came after a strong Friday close, where Brent gained 2.51% and WTI rose by 2.82%.
Trump is expected to make a “major statement” on Russia amid growing pressure to support bipartisan sanctions legislation aimed at compelling Moscow into meaningful peace talks with Ukraine.
His administration’s move to send Patriot air defence missiles to Ukraine also reinforced expectations of further geopolitical friction, according to the news reports.
While geopolitical tensions supported prices, the upside was limited by news that Saudi Arabia had exceeded its OPEC+ output quota.
According to the IEA, Saudi oil output in June rose to 9.8 million barrels per day (bpd), surpassing its implied OPEC+ target of 9.37 million bpd by 430,000 bpd.
However, Saudi Arabia's energy ministry disputed this interpretation, stating its marketed crude supply in June stood at 9.352 million bpd, in line with the agreed quota.
The discrepancy has introduced further uncertainty into global supply expectations, at a time when investors are looking for clearer signals from major producers.
Adding to the cautious tone, markets await the release of China’s preliminary commodity trade data, which may reveal further signs of sluggish demand from the world's second-largest oil consumer.
In the background, investors are also watching the progress of US tariff negotiations with key trading partners. Any developments in trade policy could significantly affect global growth and, by extension, fuel demand across major economies.
Read More: India Prepares for Oil Supply Shocks with New Emergency Reserves.
Oil prices began the week on a firm footing, supported by geopolitical risk around Russia and continued demand optimism. However, rising Saudi output, ongoing trade uncertainties, and weak data out of China are keeping gains modest. With Trump’s upcoming statement on Russia and evolving sanctions policy in focus, energy markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead.
Disclaimer: This blog has been written exclusively for educational purposes. The securities mentioned are only examples and not recommendations. This does not constitute a personal recommendation/investment advice. It does not aim to influence any individual or entity to make investment decisions. Recipients should conduct their own research and assessments to form an independent opinion about investment decisions.
Published on: Jul 14, 2025, 9:46 AM IST
Neha Dubey
Neha Dubey is a Content Analyst with 3 years of experience in financial journalism, having written for a leading newswire agency and multiple newspapers. At Angel One, she creates daily content on finance and the economy. Neha holds a degree in Economics and a Master’s in Journalism.
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