Crude Oil Prices Hold Near $61 as Market Eyes Supply-Demand Outlook

Crude Oil prices were largely unchanged on November 12, 2025, as the market paused after recent gains and awaited key supply-demand indicators. The front-month contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered near $60.97 per barrel. The global benchmark Brent Crude stood around $65.01 per barrel.

Background

Global crude markets are navigating a delicate balance. On one hand, production from groups such as OPEC and partner countries is rising. On the other, demand growth remains fragile amid slower global economic momentum and rising inventories. This has raised concerns about a looming surplus.

What’s Really Happening with Prices?

On the/latest session, Brent edged down slightly to $65.08 per barrel and WTI slipped to $60.97, both reflecting only modest movement amid cautious trading. The futures curve, particularly the prompt spread (front-month versus next month), has narrowed, signifying that the market is placing less premium on near-term supply tightness. For example, the prompt spread for WTI has nearly collapsed to a backwardation of just 5 cents, signalling expectations of looser supply-demand conditions ahead.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other forecasters, supplies are expected to outpace demand. The IEA anticipates inventory builds of around 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025. One estimate puts a supply surplus at 2.3 mb/d this year, rising further next year. Meanwhile, production increases outside of OPEC are cited as key contributors to the surplus.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment remains cautious. Recently, supply-side risks, such as sanctions on Russian oil companies and disruptions to refining capacity, have added a layer of complexity. At the same time, concerns about demand growth, particularly in major economies, continue to weigh. Technical analysis also suggests the market may be near an over-bought condition in the short term, indicating limited upside without fresh positive impetus.

Price Movement

On November 12, crude oil prices were largely flat with WTI at approximately $60.97 and Brent at about $65.01. These levels reflect a stabilisation after prior gains and reflect the balance between modest upside potential and persistent downside risk.

Read More: India's Economy Projected to Grow at 6.7-6.9% in FY26.

Conclusion

Crude oil prices held steady around early-November levels as markets await further clarity on supply and demand. While short-term support remains, the prospect of a rising inventory surplus continues to cast a cautionary tone over the market.

Disclaimer: This blog has been written exclusively for educational purposes. The securities mentioned are only examples and not recommendations. This does not constitute a personal recommendation/investment advice. It does not aim to influence any individual or entity to make investment decisions. Recipients should conduct their own research and assessments to form an independent opinion about investment decisions.

Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.