Technical and Derivatives Weekly Review - September 29, 2023

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Technical and Derivatives Review |September 29, 2023

The eventful week ended with no major change; Nifty ended a tad below 19650

Sensex (65828) / Nifty (19638)

Source: Tradingview.com

Future Outlook

The trading week began on an intriguing note, commencing with a halt in the decline from the previous week and observing two

trading sessions with no significant price changes. Wednesday saw some buying interest from lower levels, instilling optimism.

However, on the monthly expiry day, prices remained uncertain at higher levels and experienced another round of profit booking.

Eventually, on Friday, the market rebounded from crucial support levels. Despite a week-long tug-of-war between bulls and bears,

prices closed the week with no major change ending a tad below the 19650 mark.

From a technical standpoint, little has altered this week, as prices oscillated within a defined range. On the daily chart, prices stayed

within a specific range, with 19500 serving as immediate support and 19750 - 19800 as formidable resistance. September concluded

with a 2% gain, although the late sell-off in the last two weeks was disheartening. Having said that, prices defended the critical

support levels of the 50SMA and 61.8% retracement on a weekly basis. If prices continue to hold and break above the mentioned

resistance, October could potentially turn out in the favour of the bulls. Global cues will play a crucial role in this scenario, hence,

one needs to keep a close eye on them. On the downside, the 19500 - 19550 range provided strong support and should be

considered a pivotal level. A breach below this range could trigger further declines, with levels around 19300 marked by the 89-day

EMA and the starting point of the recent rally at 19200 possibly becoming the next downside target. Traders should closely track

these levels and make their trading decisions accordingly.

While the major indices traded within a range, there was active participation in the broader market during the week. A thematic

approach can be pursued, but investors should exercise caution and be highly selective to identify opportunities for out-

performance.

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Technical and Derivatives Review |September 29, 2023

Sho

Form

ion

Long Short Ratio slumps to 28%

Nifty spot closed at 19638.30 this week, against a close of 19674.25 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.93 to 1.03 on

a weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is at 4.69%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 10.97%.

Derivatives View

Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 70.70 against a premium of 148.40 points to its spot in the previous week.

Next month’s future is trading at a premium of 188.30 points.

The Indian equity market witnessed a lackluster week of trade, barring the expiry session, which dented the overall sentiments. The

benchmark index had a subdued closure on a weekly basis, prompting signs of a breather after the previous week’s correction. The

October month expiry started with a short covering in key indices, indicating an early sign of relief. The derivative data remains

insignificant ahead of the extended weekend, while on the options front, noteworthy piling is seen at 19600-19500 put strikes,

suggesting strong nearby support. On the higher end, the 19800-call strike withholds the highest OI, followed by 19700 CE,

indicating an intermediate resistance zone. Meanwhile, the selling streak from stronger hands continues in the cash segment, while

curtailing longs in the index future segment led to a deep correction in the ‘Long Short Ratio’ to 28% from 53% on a weekly basis.

Any relief from the global peers could only render some optimism in our markets; hence, one must stay abreast with the

developments and have one step at a time approach for the upcoming week.

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

NAVINFLUOR 1247700 104.98 3790.35 (15.03)

ASIANPAINT 6178600 23.04 3180.45 (2.70)

LTIM 1738350 16.39 5219.40 (3.92)

TECHM 13005000 7.76 1227.25 (5.75)

GUJGASLTD 11410000 5.55 425.35 (3.29)

Weekly change in OI

Long Formation

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

BHEL 108381000 33.20 131.90 5.48

NTPC 93324000 16.93 247.20 3.95

MANAPPURAM 76458000 11.61 150.95 7.29

PNB 256416000 9.50 80.65 4.13

POLYCAB 2264400 9.11 5378.90 4.50

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Technical and Derivatives Review |September 29, 2023

Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in

Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in

Rajesh Bhosale Analyst – Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in

Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in

Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in

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Technical and Derivatives Review |September 29, 2023

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