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Technical and Derivatives Review | April 29, 2022
Market remains directionless, 16900 – 16800 becomes a key support
Sensex (57061) / Nifty (17103)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future outlook
On Monday, our market started the week with a surprising gap down to test sub-16900 levels on the back of weak global cues.
Things improved as the week progressed but in between some nervousness was clearly visible. In fact, On Friday, the way we
remained around the higher range of the week, things looked extremely rosy. However, all of a sudden, the markets took a
nosedive as we entered the last half an hour of trade and before anyone could realize, Nifty not only erased all gains but also ended
the week around 17100 with a cut over eight tenths of percent. The velocity at which market fell like a bottomless pit, it was
intimidating. Whether it’s a deception or not, time will tell; but with this, market has certainly not made a good start for the May
series.
In last week and a half, our markets have shown some resilience in comparison with most of the global peers. This is what we have
clearly observed where most of the developed markets have corrected nearly 5 - 7% and we remained in merely 2 - 3% band all this
while. This is an indication of the inherent strength and hence, the moment we see some relief globally, our markets would be the
first one to take a leap. We continue to remain hopeful as long as 16900 16800 are defended successfully. Now with last two
weeks’ of range bound movement, the daily time frame chart exhibits a Triangle’ pattern and prices are inching closer to its apex
point. Hence, the breakout in either direction is imminent. As of now, we expect it to happen in the northward direction where
17400 – 17450 are the levels to watch out for. The moment we surpass this, we could see lot of individual stocks participating in the
next leg of the rally. This view would be negated if index slides and sustains below the lower range.
Most of the key indices are placed at a crucial juncture and they are waiting for some trigger to make a move. We hope to witness a
much awaited breakout in the early part of May which will certainly bring back the wider smile in traders’ fraternity.
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FIIs positions looks short heavy in index futures
Nifty spot closed at 17102.55 this week, against a close of 17171.95 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.91 to 0.96.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 2.58%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 8.88%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 32.70 points against a premium of 55.15 points to its spot. Next month’s
future is trading at a premium of 61.15 points.
Final week of April series remained direction less as we saw index recovering for the support zone around 16800 but every upmove
was being sold into. On Friday, things looked encouraging as index witnessed some follow-up buying to reclaim 17350 but in midst
sharp selling emerged to almost test 17050 and eventually conclude the week slightly above 17100. Rollover in Nifty and BankNifty
stood at 78% and 85% respectively, which is on the lower side if compared with three-month average. This figure clearly suggests
majority of the shorts have been lightened up. Whereas it’s observed that stronger hands have rolled over their bearish bets created
during the series. Considering the recent price action, we believe 16800-16900 remains a strong demand zone whereas 17300-
17400 remains the sturdy hurdle and until we don’t see breaching of above-mentioned levels things remain unclear. Hence, we
advocate traders to be very selective while picking stocks for now.
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
ATUL 181275 33.98 8858.25 (10.19)
GUJGASLTD 4186250 29.81 475.45 (7.64)
BAJFINANCE 5141625 27.45 6704.80 (5.64)
NAM-INDIA 3611200 26.37 317.30 (3.10)
AXISBANK 58233600 25.14 730.80 (6.49)
Weekly change in OI
Long Form
ation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
BAJAJ-AUTO 2435250 22.44 3725.35 2.05
SRTRANSFIN 5241400 16.83 1205.15 8.57
COROMANDEL 1413500 6.43 898.05 8.15
ABCAPITAL 23372800 5.38 121.05 7.79
INDUSINDBK 26055900 1.85 981.90 2.21
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Technical and Derivatives Review | April 29, 2022
Sameet Chavan
Technical & Derivatives
sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 (Extn 6844) Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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