Technical and Derivatives Weekly Review - September 25, 2023

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Technical and Derivatives Review |September 25, 2023

Global tremors lead to profit booking at record highs

Sensex (66009) / Nifty (19674)

Source: Tradingview.com

Future Outlook

The Indian equity markets started the week with a hint of profit booking, taking cues from the nervousness in the global bourses. As

we slipped into the truncated week, the sell-off intensified, with a series of gap-down openings and eroded over 50 percent of the

September month gains. Amidst global weakness and firm profit booking, the Nifty50 index concluded the week with a deep cut of

2.57 percent and settled a tad below the 19700 zone.

From a technical point of view, the Nifty index has seen an intense correction after three consecutive weeks of rallying and settled

below the 50% Fibonacci retracement. The recent price action certainly portrays the ferocity of the bears, which not only decisively

dragged the index below the psychological mark but yielded a dent in the ongoing undertone. As far as levels are concerned, the

19600-19500 zone is likely to cushion the blips. While on the higher end, 19780-19800 is likely to be seen as intermediate resistance,

followed by a series of resilience from 19850-19900 and finally the 20000 mark in the near term period.

Positive global developments could only put a halt to the ongoing carnage and it would be very engaging to watch how things pan

out in the upcoming week. For now, one needs to stay very selective with stock preferences and avoid being aggressive in the

markets.

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Technical and Derivatives Review |September 25, 2023

Sho

Form

ion

Banking index added meaningful shorts

Nifty spot closed at 19674.25 this week, against a close of 20192.35 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.31 to 0.93 on

a weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is at 9.01%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 8.49%.

Derivatives View

Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 34.00 against a premium of 57.25 points to its spot in the previous week.

Next month’s future is trading at a premium of 148.40 points.

The Indian equity market witnessed a week of profit-taking, wherein the Nifty dragged below 19700, eroding 2.6% WoW. On the

derivatives front, the fall seen during last week was mainly due to long unwinding in Nifty; but the banking index witnessed

meaningful short formation. For the coming monthly expiry, put writers' shifted position to 19600-19500 strikes, indicating a

downward shift in the support. On the other side, the highest OI concentration stands at 19800 call strike, indicating the

intermediate resistance. Considering the quantum of shorts formed in the banking index and writing in 19800 call strikes, we would

advise avoiding any aggressive bets for the time being and waiting for the market to stabilize.

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

BERGEPAINT 13866600 41.70 619.70 (10.24)

HDFCBANK 142290500 31.64 1533.70 (7.74)

IDEA 1540880000 23.63 11.35 (3.81)

SBICARD 11436800 22.80 799.60 (4.91)

JKCEMENT 813500 21.46 3157.40 (4.07)

Weekly change in OI

Long Formation

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

GRANULES 15138000 29.25 337.80 1.69

CANBK 68231700 12.69 383.20 4.83

AUBANK 14017000 8.17 744.60 1.57

COLPAL 2723350 6.79 2006.25 0.92

COALINDIA 87935400 4.20 283.50 1.41

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Technical and Derivatives Review |September 25, 2023

Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in

Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in

Rajesh Bhosale Analyst – Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in

Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in

Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in

For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in

For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in

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Technical and Derivatives Review |September 25, 2023

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