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|September 23, 2022
Nifty slipped below the key support, avoid undue risk
Sensex (58099) / Nifty (17327)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future outlook
Our market started the week on a mild note taking cues from the weak global markets, but the dip augurs well for the bulls initially,
and the Nifty has seen two consecutive days of positive closure. As the week progressed, our markets seemed tentative at the
higher grounds, and the weakness in the global markets eventually dragged the indices lower by the weekend. The benchmark index
witnessed a correction consecutively for the second week and ended the session a tad above 17300 with a cut of over 1.16 percent
to the previous week’s close.
Technically speaking, the last session of correction has dampened the overall sentiments as the significant support of the unfilled
gap got breached decisively, implying strong momentum in the sell-off. The weakness in the global markets and the upcoming key
domestic data have put a sense of tentativeness among the market participants. As we have witnessed a decisive breach below the
major support zone in Nifty, one should not rule out the possibility of it testing the immediate swing low of 17150 odd zone, while
the sacrosanct support lies at the psychological mark of 17000. On the flip side, a series of resistances could be seen starting from
17500 to 17800 in the comparable period.
Considering the recent price action, traders are advised not to carry aggressive overnight bets for a while and should adapt the
strategy to follow one step at a time and respect levels on either side. The unfavorable global scenario was one of the major
catalysts for the fall in the week; hence, one should stay abreast with global developments and the upcoming key domestic macro
data. Also, one can continue to focus on individual stocks as the thematic moves are still playing out well in the market.
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|September 23, 2022
Tentativeness at higher grounds, PCR plunged to 0.76
Nifty spot closed at 17327.35 this week, against a close of 17530.85 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.75 to 0.76
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 2.56%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 4.37%
Derivatives View
Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 8.50 against a premium of 35.30 points to its spot in the previous week. Next
month’s future is trading at a premium of 66.85 points.
The Indian equity market has seen a roller coaster week once again, wherein we had a pleasant start with follow-up buying to touch
17900 mark on Tuesday. However, some nervousness was seen at higher levels and strong selling was observed on last two sessions
to drag index towards 17300. There have been mixed positions in the F&O space throughout the week, but on net basis shorts were
added. On the options front, piling up of positions is visible in the 17400-17600 call strikes, indicating the vicinity of 17500 may now
act as hurdle. While on the lower end, 17000 put strike have seen piling up of positions, which hints support has now shifted to
17000-17100. Meanwhile, the stronger hands have turned net sellers in cash and index future segments in the last three sessions.
Hence, their ‘Long Short Ratio’, plunged to 20% from 28% WoW. Going ahead, it is advisable to keep a close tab global
developments and be very selective for next couple of sessions.
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
CANFINHOME 5966025 192.36 516.95 (18.83)
GUJGASLTD 8012500 50.68 487.20 (3.29)
M&MFIN 27028000 35.74 195.15 (14.09)
MUTHOOTFIN 8971125 29.13 965.90 (5.99)
IDEA 841890000 22.47 8.90 (3.26)
Weekly change in OI
Long Fo
rmation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
CIPLA 9519900 29.20 1062.75 1.61
ITC 93392000 15.93 346.35 4.24
NMDC 64728700 15.11 128.10 2.23
CUMMINSIND 3727200 9.48 1217.95 2.18
TVSMOTOR 7716800 8.14 1040.55 1.49
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For Private Circulation Only
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Review
|September 23, 2022
Sameet Chavan
C
hief Analyst
Technical
& Derivati
ves
sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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