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Technical and Derivatives Review |January 21, 2023
Some tentativeness ahead of heavyweights’ earning
Sensex (60622) / Nifty (18028)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future outlook
For the third consecutive week, our markets had a promising start; but we failed to capitalize on it once again due to lack of follow
up buying interest. The US markets were the spoilsport as we witnessed a sizeable correction there in the latter half of the week.
Although, we didn’t mirror the weakness, our markets remained tentative to conclude the week tad above the 18000 mark.
In the early part of week gone by, the benchmark index managed to traverse the intermediate hurdle of 18100; but didn’t have
enough legs to go beyond the sturdy wall of 18200 - 18300. It seems market requires some solid trigger to break the shackles. On
the global front, hopefully we see relief in US markets after three days of continuous weakness. However, at our end, few
heavyweights are going to report their earnings over the weekend, which will have a considerable impact on our market as we step
in to the monthly expiry week. As of now, we continue to remain hopeful and expect the action to trigger in the upward direction. As
far as levels are concerned, the rock-solid support is visible at 17900 17750 and till now, bulls have managed to defend it in a
challenging environment. On the flipside, it has become a daunting task to surpass the hurdle of 18150 – 18300.
The way our markets have undergone a long time-wise correction; we expect the breakout to happen soon from this contracted
range. Hopefully, quarterly earnings from RELIANCE and banking giant ICICI Bank, set the tone and help us come out of this slumber
phase. The coming week is likely to see some action although it’s truncated as the expiry is preponed by a day on account of
Republic Day holiday on Thursday. Also, it’s important to understand, we are inching closer to the ‘Union Budget and hence, market
would try to position itself ahead of this mega event.
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Technical and Derivatives Review |January 21, 2023
rt Format
Long Short Ratio surged to 53%
Nifty spot closed at 18027.65 this week, against a close of 17956.60 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.03 to 0.83 on
Weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 11.40%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 0.33%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 28.15 against a premium of 83.75 points to its spot in the previous week.
Next month’s future is trading at a premium of 103.95 points.
It was yet another week, wherein market remained in a slender range and concluded the week tad above the psychological mark of
18000. In F&O space, we could hardly see any relevant build-up in Nifty, whereas some unwinding was observed in banking index.
Stronger hands seemed to add mixed bets in equities; but on net basis they remained sellers. In index futures, they added fresh
longs and covered few bearish bets resulting Long Short Ratio advancing to 53% from 44% seen last Friday. Due to Friday’s selling,
the PCR-OI once again plunged below 1 as we observed massive writing in 18100-18500 call strikes. On Put side, highest open
interest is now placed at 18100 followed by 17800 put strike. It’s been quite some time that market rebounds and things seem to be
optimistic but due to lack of follow-up move we can’t see a sustainable move in northward direction. However, we still don’t see any
sign of caution until 17700-17800 zone is defended on the closing basis.
Chg (%)
PVR 4269430 43.97 1609.25 (8.27)
ATUL 209475 43.23 7395.40 (4.19)
TORNTPOWER 4507500 35.85 460.65 (4.53)
INDUSTOWER 21327600 29.39 171.20 (7.68)
DIXON 732750 28.58 3519.00 (3.46)
Weekly change in OI
Long Formation
Chg (%)
COFORGE 1020450 49.39 4114.25 6.34
POLYCAB 991800 28.14 2751.50 2.90
SIEMENS 1967075 21.53 3063.85 2.86
ONGC 46261600 20.46 151.40 2.54
PERSISTENT 690550 19.61 4264.20 6.84
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Technical and Derivatives Review |January 21, 2023
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
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