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Technical and Derivatives Review |September 18, 2023
Winning streak continues for third straight week; Nifty ends tad below 20200
Sensex (67839) / Nifty (20192)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future Outlook
The week was filled with action as Nifty began by opening with a gap up on Monday, reaching a fresh high beyond 20000 and closing
around that level. Tuesday saw another strong gap-up opening, but unlike the previous day, there was a broad-based sell-off that
caught complacent traders off guard. However, leading stocks came to the forefront, and Nifty continued its upward trajectory for
the week, concluding with a gain of 1.88%, just below the 20200 mark.
The winning streak for the bulls continued for the third consecutive week, propelling Nifty into uncharted territory and forming a
positive 'SAUCER' pattern, which is favorable for the bulls. Nevertheless, indicators have entered the overbought zone, and the daily
chart displays small-body candles, suggesting some signs of fatigue among the bulls. Moreover, prices have approached a key level,
the 'Golden Ratio Retracement' at 161.8% of the fall from 18888 to 16828 i.e. considered as a stiff resistance. Hence, going ahead
the next leg of up move may not be as swift as recent times, potentially involving in-between pauses or price corrections. The overall
sentiment remains positive, and the advisable approach is to view dips as buying opportunities. In this scenario, the previous
resistance around 20000 is likely to act as immediate support, while Tuesday's panic low of 19900 remains a critical pivot point. On
the other hand, in uncharted territory, the next resistance zone lies in the range of 20400 to 20500.
The Midcap Index ended its weekly winning streak, with Tuesday's selloff introducing caution in this segment. Going forward, this
space may take a back seat, and intermittent price corrections could persist after recent impressive gains. During the week, front-
line counters maintained their strength, and traders should focus on such areas that are deemed safe bets. However, one needs to
be very fussy in stock selection as low-hanging fruits have already gone.
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Technical and Derivatives Review |September 18, 2023
Sho
rt
Form
at
ion
FIIs remain buoyant, ‘LSR’ advanced to 66%
Nifty spot closed at 20192.35 this week, against a close of 19819.95 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.38 to 1.31 on
a weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is at 7.96%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 12.94%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 57.25 against a premium of 52.50 points to its spot in the previous week.
Next month’s future is trading at a premium of 160 points.
The Indian Equity market continued its winning streak for the third consecutive week, wherein the market kept inching higher
throughout the week to settle at record highs around 20200 (spot). On the derivatives front, the upmove was supported by longs in
Nifty, and BankNifty rallied due to short covering. On the options front, 20100 and 20000 put strikes added fresh bets. On the flip
side, 20200-20300 call strikes have scattered piling of OI, indicating immediate resistance. FIIs remained buoyant and added longs in
the index futures segment. Hence, their index futures Long Short Ratio surged to 66% from 58% WoW. Considering the above data
points, the market seems upbeat but would advocate to avoid being complacent after the rally and utilize dips to add long bets in
the system.
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
LAURUSLABS 12896200 19.26 401.45 (2.04)
SRF 3513000 15.60 2379.65 (2.69)
IRCTC 18081875 11.23 697.70 (4.09)
IOC 121290000 10.65 92.30 (2.28)
BATAINDIA 1527375 9.78 1682.65 (2.62)
Weekly change in OI
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
LALPATHLAB 917100 29.21 2346.15 5.99
GRANULES 11712000 28.20 332.20 5.85
HCLTECH 11644500 16.73 1303.75 3.18
IPCALAB 1797900 14.72 932.30 3.83
BHARTIARTL 46329600 12.99 931.05 5.08
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Technical and Derivatives Review |September 18, 2023
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst – Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
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Technical and Derivatives Review |September 18, 2023
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