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Technical and Derivatives Review |March 18, 2023
Markets are extremely oversold, avoid undue risk
Sensex (57990) / Nifty (17100)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future outlook
Our market started the week on a bleak note taking cues from the weak global bourses, wherein the benchmark index slipped below
the 200 SMA and dented market sentiments. Nifty remained under pressure throughout the week, clocking new lows in the current
calendar year till the day of weekly expiry. However, a modest recovery was seen in the last trading session, which led to a sense of
resurgence from the lows. Eventually, the week closed in negative terrain, shedding 1.80 percent from its previous week’s closure
and Nifty settled at the 17100 level.
The intense sell-off in the global markets dented our sentiments, mirroring which Nifty tumbled below the 200 SMA. However, the
last trading session could be seen as constructive development for our markets as the index revived from the crucial support of the
17000-16900 zone. On the technical front, we are not entirely out of the woods and the broader trajectory remains tentative, but
we may expect some bounce in the near term. As far as levels are concerned, the recent swing low of 16900-16850 is likely to act as
the sheet anchor’s role, and it is highly anticipated that the dip would augur well for the bulls. On the flip side, the 17200-17250 is
the immediate hurdle, followed by the sturdy wall of 200 SMA placed around the 17400-17450 odd zone.
Going ahead, any relief on the global front could act as the catalyst to provide the much-needed impetus for our market to surge
upwards. Hence, we need to keep a close tab on global developments in the coming week. Meanwhile, traders are advised to avoid
aggressive bets and look for stock-specific action, while investors could now seize this opportunity by initiating accumulation in good
blue-chip companies in a staggered manner.
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Technical and Derivatives Review |March 18, 2023
rt Form
FIIs F&O positions looks short heavy
Nifty spot closed at 17100 this week, against a close of 17412.90 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 0.89 to 0.88 on
Weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 11.91%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 9.03%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 78.10 against a premium of 77.20 points to its spot in the previous week.
Next month’s future is trading at a premium of 175.40 points.
We witnessed follow-up selling to drag index towards 16850 on Wednesday; however market trimmed the loss on same day and
saw smart recovery on Friday to end the week 1.80% lower. In F&O space, fresh short formation was seen in correction but on the
final day of the week market rebounded with some traces of short covering. We observed decent pile up of positions was seen in
17000 and 17100 put strike, suggesting immediate support around 17000. On the flip side, 17200 followed by 17500 holds decent
positions. Stronger hands continue selling streak in equities and index futures. Their ‘Long Short Ratio’ to plunge to 10% from 16%
WoW. Data suggests our markets are extremely oversold; hence, would advise traders to avoid undue risk.
Chg (%)
AUBANK 15536000 26.35 588.05 (4.80)
RBLBANK 38390000 25.52 142.05 (8.44)
ABFRL 25149800 25.14 215.20 (8.74)
PEL 10075450 23.93 692.90 (7.28)
MPHASIS 2854775 23.32 1897.10 (6.96)
Weekly change in OI
Long Formation
Chg (%)
GMRINFRA 141390000 18.01 42.95 8.46
INDIAMART 362850 16.75 4903.75 3.51
WHIRLPOOL 957600 11.31 1357.50 1.08
GODREJCP 5605000 8.67 952.30 3.68
ICICIPRULI 16596000 7.94 408.40 3.46
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Technical and Derivatives Review |March 18, 2023
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.set[email protected].in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]elone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho[email protected]gelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresea[email protected]ngelone.in
For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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