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Technical and Derivatives Review | March 17, 2022
Nifty beyond 17000 as global uncertainty starts to disappear
Sensex (57864) / Nifty (17287)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future outlook
Previous week’s smart recovery was followed by a positive start on Monday. We managed to extend gains towards 16900 on the
same day itself. However, due to some nervousness at higher levels, we witnessed a sharp profit booking on the subsequent day to
snap all gains. Fortunately it was merely a reality check which didn’t last too long. In fact, the geopolitical concerns with respect to
Russia and Ukraine started to fade away, which uplifted the overall sentiments. Due to two back to back bump up sessions, Nifty
eventually went on to close convincingly beyond 17000 as the bulls pocketed almost 4% gains this week.
Despite being a truncated week, it was not at all short of action by any means. The bulls took it from where they left last week and in
fact as the global uncertainty kept easing off, markets reacted strongly in the upward direction to compensate for all the bashing
they had couple of weeks back. If we refer to our recent commentaries, we fortunately started participating in the journey just at
the right time and this week too managed to ride it successfully. Technically, the way ‘RSI-Smoothened’ was placed last week, it was
clearly an indication of continuation of the upward trajectory. Now with Thursday’s spectacular move, bulls have conquered the
sturdy wall of 16800 – 17000, which now should act as an immediate support for the index. On the flipside, 17500 followed by
17650 are the next levels to watch out for. But in our sense, the index may not have the similar sort of swift move that we witnessed
in last 5 – 6 trading sessions. We may see some consolidation or in between small bout of profit booking in the forthcoming week.
However we strongly believe that the stock specific adjustments are likely to continue and hence the pragmatic approach would be
to keep focusing on thematic plays and importantly identifying the potential movers within the same is the key. Also, the banking
index plays a vital role going ahead as its approaching its crucial juncture of 36700 – 37000. Let’s see how this high beta index
behaves in the first half of the week. Since the Russia-Ukraine war is yet to completely come to an end, it would be important to
keep a regular tab of this development as well.
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Technical and Derivatives Review | March 17, 2022
FIIs turned net buyers after a month
Nifty spot closed at 17287.05 this week, against a close of 16630.45 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.03 to 1.11.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 0.28%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 6.76%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 35 points against a premium of 17.30 points to its spot. Next month future is
trading at a premium of 83.30 points.
We had a cheerful start for the week, the benchmark index marched beyond the strong hurdle around 16800 on Monday and even
managed to close above same. On the following day, some profit booking was observed but index resumed its upmove on
Wednesday to almost touch 17000. On Friday, we once again had a head start above 17200 and the momentum accelerated to rally
beyond 17300. Taking a glance at the F&O data, we observed mixed activity during the week. On a net basis, open interest reduction
was observed in both the indices. Surprisingly, stronger hands turned net buyers in equities (in last two trading sessions) after quite
sometime. They also exited shorts and added bullish bets in index as well as stock futures. In options segment, the pile up is clearly
visible in 17000 – 17300 Put strikes, which is again an encouraging sign. Considering recent development, we remain upbeat on
market and expect follow-up move towards 17400 – 17500.
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
GUJGASLTD
4210000 35.86 506.80 (1.08)
GSPL 2769300 29.49 261.45 (2.57)
CUB 12549400 29.37 121.15 (2.14)
PFIZER 131000 27.65 4405.80 (2.00)
LTTS 650800 26.57 4749.30 (4.30)
Weekly change in OI
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
DALBHARAT
1008500 65.19 1463.60 2.01
WHIRLPOOL 1035500 59.92 1653.05 4.63
NAM-INDIA 3585600 49.60 338.55 8.27
RAMCOCEM 3160300 30.92 762.60 3.13
BOSCHLTD 200750 24.88 14606.05 2.32
Short Formation
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Technical and Derivatives Review | March 17, 2022
Sameet Chavan
–
Technical & De
rivatives
sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 (Extn – 6844) Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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